tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39846836341883214392024-03-29T11:51:59.017+08:00萬年船日誌全球量化交易絲路-MultiCharts、期貨、IB、CQG、AMP、Charles SchwabScotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.comBlogger113125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-64843318664610757422024-03-14T10:31:00.000+08:002024-03-14T10:31:02.247+08:002024/5/28起美股交割日縮短為T + 1<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4N27IQU10JIkWoKr-MrtgsY5E7ETD4VXrdDA0BAAANsULVEUdPDIwBnEWNp8CIq6JVGt7XtucaSeHbOzxFi0wBkLmiqaATgcm6mJ4DUrGp5ciWL7mtrokyWblOtExAdG3BgHcYQeD-LHibGs-y2FenaGm5jFdbgiHO5GwmQd4LHMcaHxFLvruVT0RBTLj/s590/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-29-45.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="589" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4N27IQU10JIkWoKr-MrtgsY5E7ETD4VXrdDA0BAAANsULVEUdPDIwBnEWNp8CIq6JVGt7XtucaSeHbOzxFi0wBkLmiqaATgcm6mJ4DUrGp5ciWL7mtrokyWblOtExAdG3BgHcYQeD-LHibGs-y2FenaGm5jFdbgiHO5GwmQd4LHMcaHxFLvruVT0RBTLj/s320/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-29-45.png" width="319" /></a></div><br />Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-67297443614089907552024-03-12T11:02:00.112+08:002024-03-15T11:36:48.925+08:00 SGOV、BIL、BOXX該選哪一個呢<p style="text-align: left;">有人會問:『SGOV、BIL、BOXX該選哪一個呢? BOXX好像不用月底賣掉再重新買回?』</p><div style="text-align: left;"><p>雖然BOXX不會每個月除息,但它每天的價格波動較不穩定,反觀SGOV、BIL的每日價格波動幾乎都十分穩定</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>當日高低價幾乎都在1個tick內</li><li>且當天收盤價與前一個交易日收盤價的增量也相對穩定</li></ol><p></p><p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>所以如果是短期可能會動用到的資金(Money Market本來就是設計給短期隨時可能會動用到的資金停靠的),建議還是以SGOV、BIL為主(而目前SGOV內部費用仍處於優惠期,所以SGOV又會優於BIL)</b></span></p><p></p><ol><li>如果是在IB下單,預扣的30%稅金,隔年二月會返還的(如下圖所示),無須月底賣掉再重新買</li><li>如果是在Schwab下單且不嫌麻煩的話,可考慮初級拍賣市場的國庫券(T-Bill),會有略高的殖利率,只要固定每星期無腦的下一筆市價預約單買進即可(星期四晚上到星期一晚上,自己找方便的時間下市價預約單即可),請參考此文:『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post_28.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">我的閒置資金利差:+16個基點</a>』</li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYbTVq-s1SIvQvYxSJ3F22mEmLbwvuAD4C0LoB2zEFCpzoYIY7Qm8BkGBCr9IbBVNdQzHshNzJcMChD22o0b-pm7cO6Yl33FanossAhYrv9kt4rBdx2Z1SHOE4F2cDQfODrW941zH0U6wzPtZdcIOW3IeKWZcltt7Ux_tC-Dj12SvGVOI4F8blYl_CrNJf/s625/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-39-36.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="207" data-original-width="625" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYbTVq-s1SIvQvYxSJ3F22mEmLbwvuAD4C0LoB2zEFCpzoYIY7Qm8BkGBCr9IbBVNdQzHshNzJcMChD22o0b-pm7cO6Yl33FanossAhYrv9kt4rBdx2Z1SHOE4F2cDQfODrW941zH0U6wzPtZdcIOW3IeKWZcltt7Ux_tC-Dj12SvGVOI4F8blYl_CrNJf/s320/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-39-36.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>現在我們來進一步檢視SGOV與BOXX的近日價格波動,如下圖所示,左邊是SGOV股價,右邊則是BOXX股價,橘色框框表示BOXX當日的收盤價相較於前一日是下跌的,但SGOV每日的價格卻都是上漲的,最差頂多持平,而紫色的區塊則是BOXX當日高低價波動超過5個tick的部分,而SGOV大部分都只有一個tick,頂多兩個ticks的波動(BIL表現與SGOV類似,差別只在BIL每日的高低價波動最多幾乎都只有一個tick而已)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUeYCaSMsQsgbYR8HwbDNHQiiT0qPzP-lafwSaMsKGkcKRaWslRaU_5yc9IlQAfisn9OQ8xJfbZ2q8wF8uS1moYeY8fSr9b0WKqzXCebQHsTEEsZHblbi76UzV_lbOzrDxcBqtLZ_t5YPb_QN46tKbf510ZCIhLBHun9mNlaDBgtyZiEFrwM4kUBhq_L6k/s1256/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-43-15.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="1256" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUeYCaSMsQsgbYR8HwbDNHQiiT0qPzP-lafwSaMsKGkcKRaWslRaU_5yc9IlQAfisn9OQ8xJfbZ2q8wF8uS1moYeY8fSr9b0WKqzXCebQHsTEEsZHblbi76UzV_lbOzrDxcBqtLZ_t5YPb_QN46tKbf510ZCIhLBHun9mNlaDBgtyZiEFrwM4kUBhq_L6k/s320/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-43-15.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p>既然BOXX的價格波動比較不穩定,那相較之下彼此的殖利率又如何呢?舉例來說,以3/8(五)收盤價的30天SEC Yield來比較三者的殖利率</p><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>SGOV = 5.24%</b></span> (<a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">官網公告值</a>,請看本文最下方的截圖)</li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>BIL = 5.19%</b></span> (<a href="https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-bloomberg-1-3-month-t-bill-etf-bil" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">官網公告值</a>,請看本文最下方的截圖)</li><li>BOXX = 5.86% (手動試算值,請看本文最下方的截圖)</li></ul><p></p></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #b45f06;">註:BOXX以手動試算是因為官網並沒公告30天SEC Yield值</span></p></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"><p>乍看之下,好像BOXX最高,但如果再往回看BOXX一個星期內的30天SEC Yield,如下</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>3/8(五):BOXX = 5.86%</li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>3/7(四):BOXX = 5.16%</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>3/6(三):BOXX = 5.28%</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>3/5(二):BOXX = 5.05%</b></span></li><li>3/4(一):BOXX = 4.82%</li></ul><p></p><p>這五天殖利率在4.82%到5.86%之間波動(<span style="color: #990000;"><b>高低差104個基點</b></span>;Basis Points),或許會有週末效應,所以如果3/4(一)與3/8(五)這兩天忽略不看,只看中間星期二到星期四的殖利率,雖然這三天的殖利率相對穩定,但仍可發現殖利率波動程度為5.05%到5.28%之間(<span style="color: #990000;"><b>高低差23個基點</b></span>;Basis Points),這全是因為BOXX價格變化較不穩定的關係,而SGOV、BIL縱使隔2個交易日,殖利率也不至於有如此大的變化(年底作帳除外),殖利率非常穩定,話說回來,不知道大家是否曾想過,如果BOXX的發行單位有信心的話,為何不在其官網發布30天的SEC Yield,公開讓人比較呢?</p><p></p><p>再把BOXX這五天(星期一到星期五)的殖利率做平均,殖利率平均值為5.234%,實際上還比SGOV的5.24%略低,不過這沒有一定的,因為BOXX殖利率的波動比較不穩定,可能會略高,也可能會略低,短期內究竟會略高還是略低,就看你買入與賣出時的運氣了</p><p>而SGOV、BIL則替你屏除掉運氣的成分,均一價賣你,又均一價向你買回,短期殖利率十分穩定、不含糊</p><p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>目前SGOV會優於BIL,因為雙方的買賣價差都在0.01%(1個基點),但目前SGOV的內部成本比BIL低約6.56個基點(目前SGOV內部費用依舊處於優惠期的關係),如下圖所示</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmLR6yJ7RI-Uyv0AZjcDBtxrF3y4ftaSi1hzX7vSvnkjpTEI954vl6U7RClGH7YHBp2lqRqjyHdXI4xa-Lm2zO8PHtoypUAq8sQYtQDs-YI_p54fLjAwrI2-IKDreSE5zWtyQmNLZnBiYpp5eBhN6v_5tQaAO_mvAtMi5RnhzTtFWcGYm3_Q6i_rk35wiO/s1398/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-08-59.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="541" data-original-width="1398" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmLR6yJ7RI-Uyv0AZjcDBtxrF3y4ftaSi1hzX7vSvnkjpTEI954vl6U7RClGH7YHBp2lqRqjyHdXI4xa-Lm2zO8PHtoypUAq8sQYtQDs-YI_p54fLjAwrI2-IKDreSE5zWtyQmNLZnBiYpp5eBhN6v_5tQaAO_mvAtMi5RnhzTtFWcGYm3_Q6i_rk35wiO/s320/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-08-59.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsPzy4AlR7_TPiLIpECpfctuu646PCVvJ49k1aah2MF1FREnjPLDjFcFXrl16HYqSKADHOteWglkwrAykXZKDRjMYvu-67wfWa4fHFwRTBUqtvHB2gVD_m7Pj9grojupTspcZfAUx-Tg1tieDcaCQ3D-fvEFnne3OfeCaw5CfuuTAps_kivD_j7dHISfPM/s1352/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-04-27.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="1352" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsPzy4AlR7_TPiLIpECpfctuu646PCVvJ49k1aah2MF1FREnjPLDjFcFXrl16HYqSKADHOteWglkwrAykXZKDRjMYvu-67wfWa4fHFwRTBUqtvHB2gVD_m7Pj9grojupTspcZfAUx-Tg1tieDcaCQ3D-fvEFnne3OfeCaw5CfuuTAps_kivD_j7dHISfPM/s320/2024-3-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-04-27.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>所以在不會主動退稅的券商(例如Schwab)戶頭之閒置資金,除非是長期的閒置資金,才適合考慮BOXX,因為長期下來BOXX的短期殖利率波動效應會因此被淡化掉</b></span>,不過也要考慮資金是否太大,因為BOXX目前的買賣價掛單量仍很低,如果資金太大,很容易就買賣到第二、三、四檔去了,或者要分批買賣</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwFEa5HQD7B1HJiVdIwKzwKLxLLgk7b_6U0GlHJmtSqyvatMSVtwA42ncLqp2GqJKaQkw7SV2ZdcLumcoFPWoaB403VSIHdQD8vzMumuUuQwWG2C6wukfi81RbAStQJzLsV_kt-RBgeDw6b0aqAra5BQmlfakR-Piz1sWbi2_-1Kdh4UWEJM07sn4lN8FI/s1052/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-11-09.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="1052" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwFEa5HQD7B1HJiVdIwKzwKLxLLgk7b_6U0GlHJmtSqyvatMSVtwA42ncLqp2GqJKaQkw7SV2ZdcLumcoFPWoaB403VSIHdQD8vzMumuUuQwWG2C6wukfi81RbAStQJzLsV_kt-RBgeDw6b0aqAra5BQmlfakR-Piz1sWbi2_-1Kdh4UWEJM07sn4lN8FI/s320/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-11-09.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnO5z0CcYfqNekrtMZhCGmumC2Om7GPQxYipYQ1r6byOBopFI0Ef8d7Pg1DlCjkdJMRnuuO0UnyS_WYAwnNhXO4Bo-9ueqnTtKSIuXvDGgsTuUrGDsYHZqkr_JcKTSJCvNwfp5NwKBV2DszQ_kpO8kA6bhyi01OARK7y0qyBlWVsPiK8Hst3QtWS7IemiG/s1269/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-11-31.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="1269" height="85" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnO5z0CcYfqNekrtMZhCGmumC2Om7GPQxYipYQ1r6byOBopFI0Ef8d7Pg1DlCjkdJMRnuuO0UnyS_WYAwnNhXO4Bo-9ueqnTtKSIuXvDGgsTuUrGDsYHZqkr_JcKTSJCvNwfp5NwKBV2DszQ_kpO8kA6bhyi01OARK7y0qyBlWVsPiK8Hst3QtWS7IemiG/s320/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-11-31.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaw8nEXRjgORqYz3L4NG4CqxnYDXltD8IoVZh6VBG_yTtzvl_Kvppwdif-MyYC470mDCa-OvGKURHfun7wk9mfiX6Ts_SfiYJ3TBG040UtTB6pnngsGDtsPR_guuKj_oYGyoCjE2sg9VbTrWuNwGeYa1SEwXaxsqAV3qkTVC-Md7eNqOlXULO_gRIVUkxK/s1104/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-35.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="1104" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaw8nEXRjgORqYz3L4NG4CqxnYDXltD8IoVZh6VBG_yTtzvl_Kvppwdif-MyYC470mDCa-OvGKURHfun7wk9mfiX6Ts_SfiYJ3TBG040UtTB6pnngsGDtsPR_guuKj_oYGyoCjE2sg9VbTrWuNwGeYa1SEwXaxsqAV3qkTVC-Md7eNqOlXULO_gRIVUkxK/s320/2024-3-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-35.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-35826040767842911232024-03-09T11:28:00.000+08:002024-03-09T11:28:54.091+08:00常見海外期貨商財務安全係數/CFTC(2024-03-09/月中更新)<p>更新日期:<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>2024-03-09</b></span><b style="color: #2b00fe;">(月中更新)</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYUvqktIqAfvNkkYNqjmA2TpeDPYcpqrL4eoiwZgQfCRjVFLPnQOi7hVpsDjoWxPEKSyK9QcIitL1nU9pBnSrU2H8kSOQYTmIhBKjaVUC8qbjX2kP87QH_mFjGim43N8qj26XvpJBldMRvgHF_LEdRu1wYliSExsowGZu-sc8tZsuZ69lx5yqz0CGZQKcc/s1538/2024-3-9%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-28-13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1538" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYUvqktIqAfvNkkYNqjmA2TpeDPYcpqrL4eoiwZgQfCRjVFLPnQOi7hVpsDjoWxPEKSyK9QcIitL1nU9pBnSrU2H8kSOQYTmIhBKjaVUC8qbjX2kP87QH_mFjGim43N8qj26XvpJBldMRvgHF_LEdRu1wYliSExsowGZu-sc8tZsuZ69lx5yqz0CGZQKcc/s320/2024-3-9%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-28-13.png" width="320" /></a></div></div></div></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>前言</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;">雖然海外期貨經紀商所提供的服務內容是選擇的重點,不過知道該公司的財務安全會有利於資金的配置: </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>財務安全高的公司,存放的資金(資產)比例可高一些無妨 </li><li>但財務安全較低的公司,若可提供高幹桿交易的話,也可以且只適合存放較低的資金(資產)比例,萬一發生倒閉時,才能降低損失或減少暫時被凍結住的資金</li></ul></div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><p></p></div></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>簡易解讀</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">安全係數太低:客戶資金放在那裡,風險比較高<br /> (萬一公司被迫結束清算,恐無力償還客戶資金)<br />安全係數太高:客戶資金雖然安全,但暗示公司獲利能力可能太低<br /> (縱使公司決定歇業,其多餘現金仍足以讓客戶安全提領)<br />安全係數的倒數:表示該公司營運使用的幹桿程度</div></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>資料說明</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">安全係數 = 多餘現金 / 客戶資產<br />營運幹桿 = 1 / 安全係數<br />安全係數、多餘現金、客戶資產的數值都是越高越好<br /> (每列最高者以粗字體顯示)<br />重要性:安全係數 > 多餘現金 > 客戶資產<br />結算商排列順序:依安全係數由高到低</div></blockquote><p><br /></p><p>參考資料</p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"> <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/financialfcmdata/index.htm">https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/financialfcmdata/index.htm</a><br /> <a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/ibsipc25.html">https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/ibsipc25.html</a></span></p><p> </p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-22158887140288510092024-03-02T10:40:00.002+08:002024-03-02T10:43:19.401+08:00主動績效低標(2024-03-02/月初更新)<p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;"><b>聲明:本文並非推薦任何被動式的投資組合,</b></span></span><span style="color: red;"><b>僅</b></span><b style="background-color: white; color: red;">提供主動式交易的基本門檻水準</b></p><p><b><span style="color: #990000;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large;">主動績效低標=</span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; font-size: x-large;">0.55</span></span></b><b><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #ea9999;">(近五年月報酬夏普值)</span></span></b></p><p>可用以下範本算出自己近五年月報酬夏普值(範例如下柱狀圖所示):<br />『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/MonthlySharpeRatioTemplate.html#download" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">職業級標的挑戰範本(月報酬滾動式夏普值)</a>』</p><p>新版的挑戰範本(v1.3)已內建本『主動績效低標 (被動投資)』</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmDKN0pIfetTjMrq3p8yS0CmAXVYHfzAUjAfwnrNwpm9An-J4XXsw2Ci719eUyAqc-RetbFXWzG_lv4fG5z6edywyJ26skCZVZOZu6iaelKczbi_TXR4GyxkpJ-mSDkWAR1nmbBdNVUD-jS2ViIlMJ_ooymo1woybOtzhhcgJ3ST8BRy_9ny603_rRDtqT/s475/2023-10-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-30-55.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="331" data-original-width="475" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmDKN0pIfetTjMrq3p8yS0CmAXVYHfzAUjAfwnrNwpm9An-J4XXsw2Ci719eUyAqc-RetbFXWzG_lv4fG5z6edywyJ26skCZVZOZu6iaelKczbi_TXR4GyxkpJ-mSDkWAR1nmbBdNVUD-jS2ViIlMJ_ooymo1woybOtzhhcgJ3ST8BRy_9ny603_rRDtqT/s320/2023-10-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-30-55.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>本文所列的績效低標值可設定為自己主動式交易的門檻,萬一自己的近五年月報酬夏普值低於此值,可能要提高警戒了,因為此績效是長期躺平便可隨便取得的績效(此為風險調整後績效,當然,躺平的原始年化報酬率不高,通常低於10%)</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>本績效低標值是由候選清單中的近五年的月報酬夏普值中取最高值,而候選清單包含以下五個被動式投資組合:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/gyroscopic-investing-desert-portfolio/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio</a><span style="background-color: white;">:</span><span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; color: #990000;">0.51</span></span></b></li><li><b><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/harry-browne-permanent/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio</a>:<span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; color: #990000;">0.47</span></span></b></li><li><b><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/scott-burns-couch/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Scott Burns Couch Potato Portfolio</a>:<span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; color: #990000;">0.55</span></span></b></li><li><b><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/golden-butterfly/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio</a>:<span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; color: #990000;">0.41</span></span></b></li><li><b><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/stocks-bonds-40-60/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio</a>:<span><span style="background-color: #f4cccc; color: #990000;">0.42</span></span></b></li></ol><p></p><p>這五個被動式投資組合的近30年的MDD(Maximum Drawdown或Deepest Drawdown Depth (%))都低於30%,換句話說近100年的MDD應該也都在50%附近或不足50%,是躺平投資族有生之年比較能接受的風險程度,其實還有其他績效更好的被動式投資組合,例如<a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/warren-buffett/#portfolio-metrics" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Warren Buffett Portfolio</a>,但近30年的MDD高達45%,而近100年的MDD更是接近80%,躺平投資族在有生之年一旦資產縮到只剩兩成,可能中途就打退堂鼓了,很難支撐到最後,所以此類的被動式投資組合雖然有稍好的績效,但不列入本候選清單之中</p><p>值得注意的是,本候選清單中的Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio是早在1970年代就被提出來了,換句話說,近50年的績效全部都是樣本外的績效(Out-of-Sample),是比較可靠且值得信賴的真實績效,而Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio與Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio這兩個投資組合,其實也都是根據原始的Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio修改而來的</p><p>近五年的月報酬夏普值,可在候選清單中的連結網頁找到,如下圖的紅色方框所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit8OP8Nr-P85qmfg_h77CGJsRf2SQGUIcrh24k6uwst0I4jerKlZ0hnW0PVG5DcmTgWflpl3-qBjt3XxFsJPhtS9An7mxRvsXgXS9qHSHIZg8AsMO21tSLArKlNu9f9Mbbr6QZ02RRIAPDghCYSkniy-67qO5wlF1jbvp4CsNx8fI_eUwnzuW42IpLEqeL/s870/2023-10-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-51-01.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="870" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit8OP8Nr-P85qmfg_h77CGJsRf2SQGUIcrh24k6uwst0I4jerKlZ0hnW0PVG5DcmTgWflpl3-qBjt3XxFsJPhtS9An7mxRvsXgXS9qHSHIZg8AsMO21tSLArKlNu9f9Mbbr6QZ02RRIAPDghCYSkniy-67qO5wlF1jbvp4CsNx8fI_eUwnzuW42IpLEqeL/s320/2023-10-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-51-01.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>這種被動式投資,長期下來的績效其實也不差,下圖為Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio近153年來的績效與MDD圖</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggPxWPgnakN08eLBOIIzDZhn7i82k2fABJ13uuc3JidXYGVh_Wj2A7J5_G39O_vzTz-hSfW_jUA7a9STp8OF0VS5ijrw8D8zRCi4BXVs9uY5A5RS6JptX1Dr9EOhMSwIGaZIUewIQdpW1KVFGfv1uI4_NxrQYYBhBFiV3EqvpUKfTo19oJH0-RCaOo20F3/s877/2023-10-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-17-11.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="877" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggPxWPgnakN08eLBOIIzDZhn7i82k2fABJ13uuc3JidXYGVh_Wj2A7J5_G39O_vzTz-hSfW_jUA7a9STp8OF0VS5ijrw8D8zRCi4BXVs9uY5A5RS6JptX1Dr9EOhMSwIGaZIUewIQdpW1KVFGfv1uI4_NxrQYYBhBFiV3EqvpUKfTo19oJH0-RCaOo20F3/s320/2023-10-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-17-11.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5J_ipntoQCBU9UWFMXA_cJoxFIoNTuoTPcqLXyLyjHXrbpetQ_P4Nr6WZpEqERKtzBvxryCgHJ1a-eMW-vlEnsdcWsZlp5SXXWk3eVfDiJwVUNi64sygP73-YrVna2XYiLJPpAPXuAMH9Nm39hd6JwpR02Pp-EKAmsJ_hhcUv7YY0jkzSBz_J4JB-Bw2u/s884/2023-10-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-17-56.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="884" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5J_ipntoQCBU9UWFMXA_cJoxFIoNTuoTPcqLXyLyjHXrbpetQ_P4Nr6WZpEqERKtzBvxryCgHJ1a-eMW-vlEnsdcWsZlp5SXXWk3eVfDiJwVUNi64sygP73-YrVna2XYiLJPpAPXuAMH9Nm39hd6JwpR02Pp-EKAmsJ_hhcUv7YY0jkzSBz_J4JB-Bw2u/s320/2023-10-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-17-56.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p><span style="color: #d5a6bd;">註:關於<a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lazy Portfolio ETF</a>網站上的夏普值計算方式是採月報酬或日報酬的計算方式,可藉由<a href="https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Portfolio Visualizer</a>網站的夏普值回推,因為該網站下方的【Notes and Disclosures】有提到他們的夏普值是採月報酬方式計算,而該網站近五年算出來的夏普值與<a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lazy Portfolio ETF</a>近五年的夏普值近似,所以可回推<a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lazy Portfolio ETF</a>網站上的夏普值也是採月報酬的計算方式</span></p><p><br /></p><p>延伸閱讀</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/challenge.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">職業級挑戰標的</a></li></ul><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-86102831982909385632024-02-11T11:59:00.008+08:002024-02-13T15:41:44.431+08:002/2單日最大獲利幅度(八字流月提前進氣)<p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>投資應以交易策略與風險控管為主,請勿過度依賴論命</b></span></p><p>下圖是我2024年的每日損益紀錄,其中2/2當天的3.08%獲利,是今年截至目前為止,最大的單日獲利幅度,如果以八字流日的角度來看,是否能看出跡象呢?答案是可以的</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IatfrhVGI12eV7lNz881zvKOCUkm2eALYTEnhIp7JZOwG0dCMdfPSdtsXaeRCL5B0UKJBUzck_0Rz7cTlpA9G3DCFjSG9pHRuj6UAuQCE-DrNTqKjq3ZD1jSCYGLvBRW9XfGDkFdba0q52wJFx443iwPZJsBvQJk0xU5pSoAcH_he8ZYb9vnBTplL8Pu/s515/2024-2-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2012-19-15.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="332" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IatfrhVGI12eV7lNz881zvKOCUkm2eALYTEnhIp7JZOwG0dCMdfPSdtsXaeRCL5B0UKJBUzck_0Rz7cTlpA9G3DCFjSG9pHRuj6UAuQCE-DrNTqKjq3ZD1jSCYGLvBRW9XfGDkFdba0q52wJFx443iwPZJsBvQJk0xU5pSoAcH_he8ZYb9vnBTplL8Pu/s320/2024-2-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2012-19-15.png" width="206" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>首先,以八字的角度,雖然投資一般是看【偏財星】,但由於我每日的權益波動已經有點趨向指數化了,不容易暴漲暴跌,在加上我也把投資當成事業在經營,所以我目前的狀態,【正財星】與【偏財星】都可同時看,第二點,既然是比較單日績效的損益幅度,那就要算到大運、流年、流月、流日</p><p><b><span style="color: #990000;">2024年丙寅月的【立春】節氣是2/4,但流月的天干丙火會提前至最近的丙流日開始進氣,也就是在2024/2/2丙申日,流月的天干丙火就會開始進氣了</span></b>,流日的天干丙火也同時進氣,而我的丙火為【正財星】,甲木為【傷官星】,所以當天2/2一口氣多了兩組【食傷生財】的氣場加持(如下圖所示),財運會特別旺,這也是為何2/2當天的單日獲利幅度會是今年到目前為止最大的</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #999999;">註:以此例來看,流月提前進氣法,精準度確實更高</span></p></blockquote><p>丙火為陽,而癸水為陰,不同陰陽的作用力很微小,而且流年天干癸水與命盤天干戊土形成戊癸合化火的關係,彼此牽制住,所以癸水【比肩星】對於丙火【正財星】不會產生剋的作用力</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwxbHSnU4W6RO8PrqeufPOGCcYYIfHgwT7boi8NDXeHIztEGVg8MbAFh99Tae5YP18aehncXSJ_dcuvlj-qCoFyKnNNhqN6anj_S5nBSFXSpEiWjhVTHs4Std560g5_820euKgPjcx6U74AAlFnnnzAOkNflhhw67vNdffJKT9D-ETdI2Y511zcW-6HECS/s1336/2024-2-7%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-56-18.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="754" data-original-width="1336" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwxbHSnU4W6RO8PrqeufPOGCcYYIfHgwT7boi8NDXeHIztEGVg8MbAFh99Tae5YP18aehncXSJ_dcuvlj-qCoFyKnNNhqN6anj_S5nBSFXSpEiWjhVTHs4Std560g5_820euKgPjcx6U74AAlFnnnzAOkNflhhw67vNdffJKT9D-ETdI2Y511zcW-6HECS/s320/2024-2-7%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-56-18.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #999999;">另外,我命盤中的地支也有巳火【正財星】(省略沒畫出來),雖然也可與大運的地支寅木【傷官星】形成【食傷生財】的氣場,但是大運的寅木【傷官星】受到命盤中的另一顆星牽制,所以能生助命盤中的地支巳火【正財星】極為有限,所以此【食傷生財】的氣場省略不畫</span></p><div><br /></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #999999;">註:好的八字算命方法,不只流年有一定的準度,甚至連流月、流日也一樣</span></blockquote><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post_22.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">八字財運弱時怎麼辦?</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">虧損前出現預感的解釋模型</a></li></ul><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-12714872590828423202024-02-07T15:06:00.012+08:002024-02-07T15:24:56.450+08:002/6流日的憂鬱負面念頭(印剋食傷)<p>前幾天心境本來一直都處於平靜中帶點喜悅,但昨天2024/2/6(星期二)一早醒來刷牙時,卻突然一直跑出負面念頭,而且又是沒有原因的(昨晚的心境本來還很平靜,也沒發生什麼事情,睡一覺醒來突然就變了),照之前的經驗,莫名產生的負面念頭,如果強烈到無法抑制住,對我來說通常是預告整體權益即將往下走一段,不過還好昨天的負面念頭沒有強烈到無法抑制住,所以應該不是整體權益要往下走的預告</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>不過按八字的原理,可以合理推論時間軸上應該又出現【印剋食傷】的格局了,而我這時期的大運、流年、流月本來就有【傷官星】,所以我就猜昨天的流日應該跑出【正印星】了,結果去查農民曆發現2/6是庚子日,而庚對我來說是【正印星】,果真被我猜中了(如下圖所示的【印剋食傷】),以八字來解釋這種莫名的憂鬱還真的很精準,去年八月莫名的負面念頭不斷湧現時,也一樣出現【印剋食傷】的格局,只是那時的氣場更強</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdekCXoiVd2JzL7xBvXfb0GxDJcLQr3-DXRufrtgEZW4PzE-ihOmSMxZczNsa0yhfe-AimWdhSTrjjrFthehuk0fQWIV-ERJlaYpEy7oeuR9BtCdd4uQlHIQCUxjxT1Jd7zBPx2Sn542RKzxIaEGxkjwI-IwI2h-f-iBlcM3IPCqOpcz4UEU3hiTVxpl9E/s829/2024-2-7%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-19-43.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="829" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdekCXoiVd2JzL7xBvXfb0GxDJcLQr3-DXRufrtgEZW4PzE-ihOmSMxZczNsa0yhfe-AimWdhSTrjjrFthehuk0fQWIV-ERJlaYpEy7oeuR9BtCdd4uQlHIQCUxjxT1Jd7zBPx2Sn542RKzxIaEGxkjwI-IwI2h-f-iBlcM3IPCqOpcz4UEU3hiTVxpl9E/s320/2024-2-7%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-19-43.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">虧損前出現預感的解釋模型</a></li></ul><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-75004597284870112542024-01-22T14:12:00.155+08:002024-02-07T14:29:23.300+08:00八字財運弱時怎麼辦?<p>之前有看書研究過八字命理,其實八字命理與投資交易很像,同樣都有一些統計模型,市面上也充斥各式各樣的命理理論,有的準有的不準,當時研究八字時,就用我自己過去八年歷史交易績效來驗證某些書的流年準確度,驗證的方式是採比較嚴苛的方式,把一個年度的結算績效分成五個程度,由最壞到最好分別為大凶、凶、普通、吉、大吉,也就是說不是只區分賺與賠,連程度都要精確區分出來才算命中,其實也就是個五個程度的選擇題,共有八題,而這八個年度是具有代表性的,分別為四個大起伏的年度與四個平淡的年度,這種考題隨便亂猜也可得到20分(隨機的期望值),當時某本書的大運模型考出來的分數就真的是20分,那本書的論命模型根本就是個亂數產生器,後來有一本書的大運模型考出來的分數為75分(換句話說<span style="color: #990000;"><b>此書的大運流年論命模型的命中率為75%</b></span>,8題命中6題,如下圖所示),這絕非亂猜而猜中的分數,因為根據Binomial的機率分布,這樣的機率只有<b><span style="color: #990000;">0.001231</span></b>(如下圖所示),一千本命理書來參加驗證考試,只有一本能亂猜到這樣的分數,所以可以推論這本八字論命的大運模型,其實還蠻可靠的,具有一定程度的參考價值</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLy6Y0LOvwFVDebCAOTcR5uU-o4z1vVsXnLRrhxnA54vVBK18t6nUV6FJmUhKbFo4zvHcDxjsIhnTlpfIVBM1N4iuUjiX3nDdM7PDaWbM6mn8b5VlwW4NnrRasiCWXtXYn2lK5oxipfBjqqpKbYnEIjfGYeKRuTOrYp3WRH2TbXdWLKfRvrWuG4vWIsZdC/s566/2024-1-27%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-12-24.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="566" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLy6Y0LOvwFVDebCAOTcR5uU-o4z1vVsXnLRrhxnA54vVBK18t6nUV6FJmUhKbFo4zvHcDxjsIhnTlpfIVBM1N4iuUjiX3nDdM7PDaWbM6mn8b5VlwW4NnrRasiCWXtXYn2lK5oxipfBjqqpKbYnEIjfGYeKRuTOrYp3WRH2TbXdWLKfRvrWuG4vWIsZdC/s320/2024-1-27%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-12-24.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">註:上圖是純粹的量化結果,只以投資帳戶的績效</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">結果</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">來判斷,完全不管當年度的過程,但如果把年度</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">整體</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">過程也考慮進去,則2010年其實也可以算是命中,因為前年2009年大賺了150%左右,所以隔年2010就很大膽的離職去假退休了,而且自有資金只準備一點點而已,更多的是貸款來的資金,所以雖然2010年的實際績效為正的2%,但如果扣掉2010那年的生活開銷,其實總資金已經減少很多了,2010年的內心充滿了壓力,投資幾乎都沒賺錢,又沒工作收入,準備的資金又不多,有種坐吃山空的感覺(專職交易真的要多準備一點自有資金才行),如果2010年也算命中的話,那命中率則會攀升到88%。</span> </div></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">還記得有一次,幫一個同學算他的流月財運,事先算的並貼在他的Line記事本內,紅色、黃色</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">、綠色分別標記每個月財運的凶、平、吉運勢,那同學當時是不信這套的,過了半年後驗證,他有賺錢的月份真的就只有綠色標記的月份,我還跟他開玩笑說,你連黃燈都不敢賺錢嗎?</span></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmkULbWa5TajHEKDRQsbZYv_-fyd-zlO-Razn-DsoGGfFDuaoxROOxAendSbiLqSQJKNRSNKewg2_Sz0U38bwp3NKhmm7-SlHzVTnEGbAoX4HYk5QwgDBVd9Xg0VIF2eT5ux7nbmFKu6KYSQXr7E6fd55ArnTqXD9Uc2YBjQ-qhJQjACg8VzDKyfEriaTJ/s926/2024-1-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-41-34.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="926" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmkULbWa5TajHEKDRQsbZYv_-fyd-zlO-Razn-DsoGGfFDuaoxROOxAendSbiLqSQJKNRSNKewg2_Sz0U38bwp3NKhmm7-SlHzVTnEGbAoX4HYk5QwgDBVd9Xg0VIF2eT5ux7nbmFKu6KYSQXr7E6fd55ArnTqXD9Uc2YBjQ-qhJQjACg8VzDKyfEriaTJ/s320/2024-1-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-41-34.png" width="320" /></a></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">註:其實命中率75%已經算很高了,因為本驗證考卷設計的比較嚴苛,所以亂猜的命中率期望值只有20%(跟我們的交易勝率不同,</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">亂猜的交易勝率期望值為50%,亂猜的基準點是不同的)</span></p></blockquote><p><b><span style="color: #b45f06;">警語:本文列出的</span></b><b><span style="color: #b45f06;">命盤</span></b><b><span style="color: #b45f06;">財運強、弱組合,僅供參考,投資交易最主要靠的還是交易策略與風險控管,請勿過度依賴論命</span></b></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">八字命盤中財運強而穩的組合</h3><p>以該書的論命模型,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>縱使八字命盤中有財星,也不代表不會遇到財運大凶的時候</b></span>,不過如果八字命盤中出現以下這六種組合中的任一個(天干與地支分開來看),則該組合所代表的財運會屬於強而穩的,隨著大運、流年、流月的更替,雖然還是可能會出現財運大凶的格局,但這樣的機率相對比較低</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBdYCjbN6QRX2XSFQb3j1ot3EGvI7Ipl9fK9dhnEAVD0UzZkSNeR_LvcOMEX3qTxFVwrWIy1ABKu49tk6cQX-7MDhBnvhaAMaWpYOj8MKioM_hjIh5Z-5r3cQD6fIvSPrOVvmM_9bWYQVVdgFdOzdfBwOP4gdqKJSW0wEttdVlAzss4ZFcmSF3z_icTvu/s1129/2024-1-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-13-16.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="897" data-original-width="1129" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKBdYCjbN6QRX2XSFQb3j1ot3EGvI7Ipl9fK9dhnEAVD0UzZkSNeR_LvcOMEX3qTxFVwrWIy1ABKu49tk6cQX-7MDhBnvhaAMaWpYOj8MKioM_hjIh5Z-5r3cQD6fIvSPrOVvmM_9bWYQVVdgFdOzdfBwOP4gdqKJSW0wEttdVlAzss4ZFcmSF3z_icTvu/s320/2024-1-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-13-16.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://prof-hwang-fortune-telling.com/zh#" rel="nofollow" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">***八字命盤查詢***</a></div><p>不過如果命盤中雖有財星,但有部分財星不在那六種組合之中,則在某些大運、流年、流月時,會比較容易跑出財運大凶的格局,而我本人命盤中共有五顆財星,其中三顆是屬於上圖中強而穩的組合,另外兩顆只是安坐(沒被剋),而這兩顆將會是我命盤中財運的最大罩門,18年後我將會走到這個罩門的大運,還連走五年,八字理論中有化解方法(也就是導氣),財運弱時的化解方法為</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">勿做積極投資</span></b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">不要借錢給別人</span></b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">安排適當的消費(或佈施捐款),把財洩掉</span></b></li></ul>而最大的重點就是第一項『勿做積極投資』,例如,如果預估接下來2年會走財運大凶的運勢,可買進2年期的直債,且把信用風險有效分散到不同的債券,如果利率上升1%,債券價格也只會跌2%,縱使利率突然驟升5%,其實價格損失頂多也就是10%,而這已經是財運大凶時的極端表現了,然而這個價格損失只是個假象,貌似已把財洩掉,然而等兩年財運大凶的運勢過了,同時債券到期,全部都會回來的<p></p><p>最近我在想,那如果原本交易的是風險較高的期貨,難不成財運呈現大凶時,期貨交易就要全部暫停下來嗎?我個人的想法是這樣的,只要把風險高的投資變成非積極投資即可,也就是把以下每個細節都做好,讓運勢的狙擊手無機可乘</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>確保往來券商穩定且分散</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>交易市場分散且相關性低</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>每個市場的資金配置,控制在一個比例內,不可過高</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>每個市場每天的曝險控制在一個比例內,不可過高</b></span></li><li><span style="background-color: #fff2cc; color: #990000;"><span><b>每日權益的最大跌幅,控制在一個比例內</b></span><b>,盡量低</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>堅守市場失靈時的SOP處置,讓該市場的最大損失程度,<b>永遠</b>被限制在初始規劃的</b></span><b style="color: #990000;">資金配置比例內</b></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>固定以人工機械式交易或程式<b>自動</b>交易,避免財運低時,因為情緒低落或思慮不周的緣故,導致錯誤的決策</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>交易系統環境異常即時監控</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>...等等,與其他風險控管細節</b></span></li></ul>雖然命理屬於玄學,但某種程度上來說,其實也算是一種統計模型,雖然模型命中率越高,越能掌握運勢高低起伏,但這並非是神的旨意(如同沒有人會認為自己的交易策略是神的旨意吧),我當時檢測那本命理書,雖然準確度高,但也不是100%,如果是100%,那人活著還有什麼意思呢?只是神的玩偶而已,所以如果總是把自己的投資模式固定成非積極投資,其實是可以不用去理會命理運勢的高低起伏,當然心態會決定一個人是否願意長期維持這種非積極投資模式,或許一個人的心態與個性,其實也是八字命理模型在預測的東西<p></p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">八字命盤中財運弱的組合</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjPS2z-SKnpjvSkpMxDXEO5Ln-mtOIGifn5bWFsTfijD9MMLvloz7T58XI5IeI0eSAfCabtdpDEjx2DnlCWNRRAiHLWnrdCBJVu3QYVReTg1kbVfgFl5r1lR2QDQ0GRVm1CyqJEKeQ6OPRD9DkxMAZZtYliiW5-lbllE4p3e7JLp3mbPu7qic9e-G7GNqz/s868/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-38-49.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="773" data-original-width="868" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjPS2z-SKnpjvSkpMxDXEO5Ln-mtOIGifn5bWFsTfijD9MMLvloz7T58XI5IeI0eSAfCabtdpDEjx2DnlCWNRRAiHLWnrdCBJVu3QYVReTg1kbVfgFl5r1lR2QDQ0GRVm1CyqJEKeQ6OPRD9DkxMAZZtYliiW5-lbllE4p3e7JLp3mbPu7qic9e-G7GNqz/s320/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-38-49.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://prof-hwang-fortune-telling.com/zh#" rel="nofollow" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">***八字命盤查詢***</a></div><p style="clear: both;">如果命盤中有上圖中的組合(天干與地支分開來看),且過往投資總覺得力不從心,但仍想藉由投資增加財富,又剛好手中有筆長期閒置的資金,則可考慮這組被動式投資組合,一開始以25%的比例平均買入此投資組合中的四檔ETF,每年只需再平衡一次,讓這四檔ETF的比例重新回到25%即可,其他什麼都不用做(躺平投資法),此投資組合其實也是本文『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/10/minlevel.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">主動績效低標</a>』中,最重要的參考績效</p><p style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/harry-browne-permanent/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio</a></p><p style="clear: both;">八字命盤中財運弱者,可考慮這組被動式投資組合的原因</p><p style="clear: both;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>這種命盤的命主,雖然偶而也會有財運順或強的時候,但大部分的時間財運都會比較不順遂(如果您比對自己過往經驗,也確實如此的話),所以該命主不適合積極投資</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>在風險低的前提下,本投資組合的風險報酬比相對高</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>本投資組合的歷史績效可參考性高(發表於70年代,所以近50年的績效,皆為樣本外績效)</b></span></li></ul><p style="clear: both;">雖然年化報酬率不高,但抗通膨綽綽有餘(扣掉通膨還有3.82%的年化報酬率),近30年內績效如下</p><p style="clear: both;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>近30年的年化報酬率=6.43%</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>近30年的最大風險(MDD%)=16%</b></span></li></ul><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #cccccc;">註:雖然基於善意,給命盤中財運弱的人提出這樣的建議,但大部分的人對這種6%的報酬率,其實都看不上眼(在發表50年後,此投資組合仍然有效,算是很棒的投資模式,取名『</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">永恆投資組合</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">』真的不誇張)</span></p></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoN-AhNZBTB7TEpUrdtRYuHQvlpuoa1ZwshPYwlbCsJj5P-T7lJyjHZTT5RM1CJPqvIr2nkJoGbfcvc4AuOimQK6VXtZk8wSXpo2eRwUeLq2V-cQkBbXDDdEjaH6r5CNbPW_9ylEGTg0POSRcTGOumeN1Fn95z-PtuUR3-uuphCi_iaJOddrIcZUjpUD8/s907/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-09-01.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="907" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnoN-AhNZBTB7TEpUrdtRYuHQvlpuoa1ZwshPYwlbCsJj5P-T7lJyjHZTT5RM1CJPqvIr2nkJoGbfcvc4AuOimQK6VXtZk8wSXpo2eRwUeLq2V-cQkBbXDDdEjaH6r5CNbPW_9ylEGTg0POSRcTGOumeN1Fn95z-PtuUR3-uuphCi_iaJOddrIcZUjpUD8/s320/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-09-01.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOcVmNK5TUM2dCOrw_Ndd1UVxp5mW5kl-LLhPKZ8zWAph5BWma95GR39qWgV0R5uJpxrSLF_eHdlcxRdNOBCwNgtwA9CQgif71JJvWxIjFNtWX1XTZqZOB9zuSg5b3hT5dM3U_OkojdmtMbkbSHtgmOFSiHU9exYhYCn7oRx42-luRrlXwRKLQx4bpW1As/s866/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-39-14.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="866" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOcVmNK5TUM2dCOrw_Ndd1UVxp5mW5kl-LLhPKZ8zWAph5BWma95GR39qWgV0R5uJpxrSLF_eHdlcxRdNOBCwNgtwA9CQgif71JJvWxIjFNtWX1XTZqZOB9zuSg5b3hT5dM3U_OkojdmtMbkbSHtgmOFSiHU9exYhYCn7oRx42-luRrlXwRKLQx4bpW1As/s320/2024-1-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-39-14.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-8976696819491357722024-01-20T22:13:00.047+08:002024-02-07T15:23:10.264+08:00虧損前出現預感的解釋模型早期曾在書上看到,有些人在出現虧損前,心情都會提前不舒服,很像是一種預感,後來我發現我也會這樣,已經很多次了,多到每當無任何原因的不斷跑出負面念頭時,我就大概可以預知,接下來我的整體權益又要往下走了一個顯著的幅度了,本來也不知道該如何解釋這種現象,因為我本身並無特殊體質,無法看見阿飄(雖然具有清明夢的能力)<p style="text-align: left;">去年2023年8月初前,本來心境一直都很平靜,但突然又出現這種無原因的不斷跑出負面念頭的現象,當時我大概知道帳戶權益又要往下走了(在不斷出現負面念頭時,當下帳戶權益尚未有開始往下走的跡象,所以並不是因為虧錢,所以才心情不好),之後果然就出現連虧兩個月,整體權益硬是往下拉回約12%(如下圖所示),也就是此文『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">無懸念的下架紀念</a>』當時的事件,而事實上當時不斷出現負面念頭時,其實該策略在2023/8/2還創新高(如下圖所示),所以並不是因為這個策略破MDD%所導致的心情鬱悶</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLfoN1vLYBkRD9hKNHFWKpZfHt18HnewI383JHVwIhl92mCk2E9N20glfPTOXlnqZuQwCEt4X0PIbeB1_fR3WOPH0KFZf3h-ELxoNLdfPZ2N-9AJ7EsSj8bMVTSBqNDypmNUsDGYfCjxOL0kQYn-CIRTk9vrl1rHF-ge4yq-3DQMvj9THIgBykwvkoWpZf/s567/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-23-03.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="567" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLfoN1vLYBkRD9hKNHFWKpZfHt18HnewI383JHVwIhl92mCk2E9N20glfPTOXlnqZuQwCEt4X0PIbeB1_fR3WOPH0KFZf3h-ELxoNLdfPZ2N-9AJ7EsSj8bMVTSBqNDypmNUsDGYfCjxOL0kQYn-CIRTk9vrl1rHF-ge4yq-3DQMvj9THIgBykwvkoWpZf/s320/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-23-03.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNxwS15nZaV-ZpMr_WTty917pohcRghQz5f_blcmGfPWKfL8rPp8ip84qUdkNZHsUVrypBEwQg9eRSPPxoTclHuYoqY1Nwghxee11XnL48HLvfL4GlqivEdIe6Al_1_xFv7d1wtQyzfy2j8YA8og7QnP7KSsIb4yuafPLCkKXU2oFKKW6Wm9-y_2h3MC80/s959/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2010-30-17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="959" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNxwS15nZaV-ZpMr_WTty917pohcRghQz5f_blcmGfPWKfL8rPp8ip84qUdkNZHsUVrypBEwQg9eRSPPxoTclHuYoqY1Nwghxee11XnL48HLvfL4GlqivEdIe6Al_1_xFv7d1wtQyzfy2j8YA8og7QnP7KSsIb4yuafPLCkKXU2oFKKW6Wm9-y_2h3MC80/s320/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2010-30-17.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">當時不斷湧出負面念頭時,我有持誦佛教的九字短咒(之前一個有宗教信仰的朋友建議的),結果發現一樣也制止不住這種負面念頭,可能這種磁場的力量太大了,一直都不知道該如何解釋這種現象,直到前幾天和那個朋友在討論此事,他先是告訴我可以改持誦『大悲咒』,我聽到差點昏倒,大悲咒太長了,我哪背的起來(我資質愚鈍,記憶能力超差,小時候光九九乘法表就背了好幾個星期),後來他告訴我:『你不是有學過八字命理,可以看一下八字』,接著我真的去查看我的八字命盤與當時的大運、流年、流月,驚然發現一個合理的解釋模型,如下圖所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFQf6Zg2uToUjdEo_L-naHAMxRF1UwNExZ53zFaAyXCRzNCz-oQBnk5GlWpnLaMDvdZ1MKydmXMvi3Db2b8Yxne-TFdjdT5zymdLBz9GhLYcTEPteowHWp5YMxscLgEiE6FU709DO6VV94HFA8NBz-otamjnkhnK5q-w-nmg7BhNA_bac0rezgnSLey6K7/s1121/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-56-59.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="1121" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFQf6Zg2uToUjdEo_L-naHAMxRF1UwNExZ53zFaAyXCRzNCz-oQBnk5GlWpnLaMDvdZ1MKydmXMvi3Db2b8Yxne-TFdjdT5zymdLBz9GhLYcTEPteowHWp5YMxscLgEiE6FU709DO6VV94HFA8NBz-otamjnkhnK5q-w-nmg7BhNA_bac0rezgnSLey6K7/s320/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-56-59.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">本來我的命盤加大運流年,只有左邊的【食傷生財】方框,後來在八月的流月突然加入右邊的【印剋食傷】方框,【印剋食傷】會導致憂鬱且使得原本的旺財驟然熄火(財源不暢),時間到了九月的流月,還是出現這種組合,導致權益有感的連續下滑兩個月,直到十月初恭送印星離開為止,這個模型解釋了為何會我會先無原因的不斷湧出負面念頭(預感),接著帳面上出現有感的損財,且我績效上有感的損財月份還與這個解釋模型完全對得起來,等下次再出現這種『預感』的時候,再來對當時的八字看看,確認是否仍有一致性</p><p style="text-align: left;">這個模型其實也就是某些書所記載的這句話:<span style="color: #990000;"><b>『印剋食傷:財源不暢,因為食傷也是財源』</b></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #b45f06;"><b>雖然虧損前出現預感可由八字命理獲得解釋,但交易靠的是交易策略與風險控管,不適合藉由這種『預感』來操作,但當這種『預感』的警鐘響起時,多留意一下策略狀況,還是可以的</b></span>,也很感恩本身具有這種『預感』的能力,跟鱷魚能提前感應地震一樣</p><p style="text-align: left;">以下列出我的命盤(五個吉字表示省略),以及當時七月、八月、九月、十月,這4個月的大運、流年、流月</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6FiHL0PpCYYHTblM4dDhAJN_6RnXjdKUMlLFCpJDgUAOGf1t781zQwknsTmGp-9CsYq7gd8B4XJZ9DxxH4WHU4lbrhXfV3VTP1SBPFHkNTgyNhIXGtUDX7PpfZSQPNEmY4de1iaRGQW-RjzrM-nw5DMuL04eGgOj1Qp5zdZ0GpkaeTrxjPrwRiXTYI3Pn/s592/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-59-41.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="472" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6FiHL0PpCYYHTblM4dDhAJN_6RnXjdKUMlLFCpJDgUAOGf1t781zQwknsTmGp-9CsYq7gd8B4XJZ9DxxH4WHU4lbrhXfV3VTP1SBPFHkNTgyNhIXGtUDX7PpfZSQPNEmY4de1iaRGQW-RjzrM-nw5DMuL04eGgOj1Qp5zdZ0GpkaeTrxjPrwRiXTYI3Pn/s320/2024-1-20%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-59-41.png" width="255" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2024/01/blog-post_22.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">八字財運弱時怎麼辦?</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2024/02/26.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">2/6流日的憂鬱負面念頭(印剋食傷)</a></li></ul><div><br /></div><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-76414688335848829812024-01-17T14:51:00.003+08:002024-01-18T10:10:21.195+08:00券商能源類轉倉日臨時規則限制已解除(MC內的CL安全提前轉倉日)<p>在2020年5月初左右先後收到AMP與IB對於能源類期貨轉倉日的臨時規則限制(提前五個交易日,如下圖所示),但直到現在也沒收到此臨時規則限制的解除通知</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZge196zkBg0Y9-QirMz6aAwNoJGKjFLIfk9RJRyFqTnXniLugxsSy6JxnsNPHaN3cGPscWxqzxZcmYz6Z4uNcehvG7kNhBs8jLOarm2CCHcM3Av0vTPCIDFju0K_yFYY4n2e8xsV6UeXwxyR8iy8lS1ExreRsb3mHgw6RyjoWTb0DdwtayC-POsVA9R9J/s1138/2024-1-16%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-32-03.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="1138" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZge196zkBg0Y9-QirMz6aAwNoJGKjFLIfk9RJRyFqTnXniLugxsSy6JxnsNPHaN3cGPscWxqzxZcmYz6Z4uNcehvG7kNhBs8jLOarm2CCHcM3Av0vTPCIDFju0K_yFYY4n2e8xsV6UeXwxyR8iy8lS1ExreRsb3mHgw6RyjoWTb0DdwtayC-POsVA9R9J/s320/2024-1-16%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-32-03.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq39En9WaUCT8dzBS2NsCgCI5gzPNhlClsUKP9xd5B9PibYA5Q5IHV2PjYl5iFbezkwy2KfYPlKSsRubsWTreCagRQGeo2TaeQ9iEZi1SnsWxig6aqFYw4PVRhyphenhyphenI5zzkJJSYgHUDZ9WltqgnagR8VuVojxxxishlC6pLP9Enn8j0dZVFeJAqi_nNIHsteP/s1252/NRGFuturesPolicy.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="765" data-original-width="1252" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq39En9WaUCT8dzBS2NsCgCI5gzPNhlClsUKP9xd5B9PibYA5Q5IHV2PjYl5iFbezkwy2KfYPlKSsRubsWTreCagRQGeo2TaeQ9iEZi1SnsWxig6aqFYw4PVRhyphenhyphenI5zzkJJSYgHUDZ9WltqgnagR8VuVojxxxishlC6pLP9Enn8j0dZVFeJAqi_nNIHsteP/s320/NRGFuturesPolicy.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>昨天我自己手動下單測試,結果CLEG24的委託單在前五個交易日內仍可下單成功(IB與AMP皆可成功),於是我寫信去問AMP,AMP人員回覆:<span style="color: #990000;"><b>『此臨時規則限制已解除並恢復成提前兩天了』</b></span>,如下圖所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsLrlUXkaGPBdnnPpKLO8NQccBnrPcaQWEz73lGw3hWUgtiVbhdxSeOwdLMhPBmN3V_gkxokzzYEavSMEurMXAl3teqoK3etkYcA8ngC0qLm_V3luV7ekf7qJbdg6kUDjCinF3MBQqk39phwZ7rN-zZ2lZsu2mbJSRbOh7aUBA4o8z7psUDGqpaMk-WzJF/s1136/2024-1-17%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-24-39.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1136" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsLrlUXkaGPBdnnPpKLO8NQccBnrPcaQWEz73lGw3hWUgtiVbhdxSeOwdLMhPBmN3V_gkxokzzYEavSMEurMXAl3teqoK3etkYcA8ngC0qLm_V3luV7ekf7qJbdg6kUDjCinF3MBQqk39phwZ7rN-zZ2lZsu2mbJSRbOh7aUBA4o8z7psUDGqpaMk-WzJF/s320/2024-1-17%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-24-39.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">MC內的CL安全提前轉倉日</h3><p>既然目前能源類期貨轉倉日已恢復為提前2天內不能有近月合約部位,那CL是否該設回前三天收盤時轉倉呢?</p><p><span style="color: #999999;">註:根據歷史資料,CL通常是在前三天,遠月合約的成交量會開始超越近月合約</span></p><p>如果使用MC,根據此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/clmulticharts.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">輕原油(CL)在MultiCharts的到期日須留意</a>』的內容,25號會受到周末或假日的影響,會導致MC內部的轉倉日可能延後,分別為以下三種情況</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>如果25號剛好落在周日,會導致MC內部的轉倉日延後1天</li><li>如果25號剛好落在周六,會導致MC內部的轉倉日延後1天</li><li>如果25號剛好落在國定假日,會導致MC內部的轉倉日延後1天(縱使25號是星期一,也或者24號未來也變成國定假日,最多也只會延後1天)</li></ol><p></p><p>註:以上三種種況皆假設MC內的美國假日有設定且設定正確</p><p>3 + MAX(1, 1, 1) = 4</p><p><b><span style="color: #990000;">所以MC內的CL安全提前轉倉日為:</span></b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><b>提前4天收盤時</b></span></p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/clmulticharts.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">輕原油(CL)在MultiCharts的到期日須留意</a></li></ul><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-87307258395734062452024-01-08T13:20:00.005+08:002024-01-10T11:10:59.637+08:00職業級挑戰標的(2024-01-08/年初更新)<p><span style="color: red;"><b> 聲明:本文並非推薦基金,僅提供客觀的挑戰標的(機會成本)</b></span></p><p>更新日期:<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><span style="font-size: x-large; font-weight: bold;">2024-01-08</span><b>(每年初更新最新挑戰標的)</b></span><br /></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>頭號挑戰標的<span style="color: #cccccc;">(今年無異動)</span><br />名稱:台灣智慧基金<br />績效:<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000001V09:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000001V09:FO</a><br /><br /></li><li>二號挑戰標的<span style="background-color: #fff2cc; color: red;">(今年有異動)</span><br />名稱:統一台灣動力<br />績效:<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000000JJU:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000000JJU:FO</a><br /><br /></li><li>低標挑戰標的(被動式投資組合)<br />名稱:主動績效低標<br />績效:<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/10/minlevel.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/10/minlevel.html</a></li></ol><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cccccc;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #cccccc;">已封存的歷年挑戰標紀錄</span></span></p><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #cccccc;">2023年度:<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000001V09:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">台灣智慧基金</a>、<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F00000VTAH:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">全球科技基金 (A/美/避)</a></span></li><li><span style="color: #cccccc;">2022年度:<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000001V09:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">台灣智慧基金</a>、<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/risk/F000001ATI:FO" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">全球科技基金 (Y/歐)</a></span></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">挑戰標的之挑選準則:</h2><p></p><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">由近五年年化報酬率大於10%的前100強,挑出近五年夏普值最高者與次高者為該年度的挑戰標的</span></b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>候選標的為『<a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/search?onshore=2&sortBy=return5Y&morningStarRanking=0&return3M=0&return5Y=10" target="_blank">Yahoo基金篩選網頁</a>』所列出來<span style="color: #ea9999;">前100名(第一頁)</span>的公開發行基金,該網頁的篩選條件設置如下(前面篩選網頁連結已設置這些條件了)</li><ul><li>境內或境外:不限</li><li><span style="color: #ea9999;">績效表現:五年10%(含)以上(年化報酬率)</span></li><li>基金類型:不限</li><li>投資地區:不限</li><li>計價幣別:不限</li><li>晨星評等:不限</li><li>基金公司:不限</li><li><span style="color: #ea9999;">排序依據:5年績效由高到低</span></li></ul><li>於候選標的中,挑選出<span style="color: #ea9999;">近五年月報酬夏普值</span>最高者為挑戰標的(註1)</li><li>若兩候選標的的夏普值相同時,年化報酬率高者勝出</li><li><span>Yahoo基金的資料或許有誤,所以最後要再對勝出的標的,進行資料正確性查核(註2),若無法通過此資料正確性查核,將取消其勝出資格,由次優者遞補,遞補者仍須通過此資料正確性查核</span></li></ol><p></p><p><span style="color: #cccccc;">註1:基金每年第一名換來換去,但中長期(五年)夏普值最高者不容易換</span></p><p><span style="color: #cccccc;">註2:資料</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">正確性查核方式如下:</span></p><ol><ul><li><span style="color: #cccccc;">先在Yahoo基金的【績效表現】頁籤找出【五年(年度化)】的【原幣報酬】,此值即為五年的年化報酬率(原幣報酬)</span></li><li><span style="color: #cccccc;">再到<a href="https://www.moneydj.com/funddjx/default.xdjhtm" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MoneyDJ基金</a>的【基金搜尋】/【境內外基金搜尋】/【輸入名稱並篩選】/【原幣年化】/【五年】,此值即為五年的年化報酬率(原幣報酬)</span></li><li><span style="color: #cccccc;">若這兩個網站五年的年化報酬率相差超過3個百分點誤差,則查核結果為不通過</span></li></ul></ol><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">如何挑戰?</h2><p>請使用以下這篇文章所提供的挑戰範本進行挑戰,此範本與Yahoo基金的夏普值計算方式相同,有相同的比較基準</p><p><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/MonthlySharpeRatioTemplate.html#download" target="_blank">職業級標的挑戰範本(月報酬滾動式夏普值)</a></p><p><br /></p><h2 id="meaning" style="text-align: left;">挑戰義涵:</h2><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>挑戰標的為<span style="color: #ea9999;">中長期績效CP值最高的基金</span>,如果你近五年夏普值高於此標的,則表示你的中長期績效已超越職業級水準(中長期的五年才能衡量出真正的實力,不然容易有偏差,例如股票在空頭時不好做、期貨在盤整時不好做、債券在升息時不好做,彼此不好做的時間不會重疊,另一方面,時間不夠長容易受運氣影響,唯有拉長時間才能忠實衡量出彼此真實實力)</li><li>挑戰標的為公開發行的共同基金,每個人都可以買,可以視為<span style="color: #ea9999;">自己操作的機會成本</span></li><li>如果你近五年夏普值低於此標的,縱使你的操作績效是正報酬,但仍賠給機會成本</li><li>賠給機會成本的意思是,你近五年的操作還不如當初直接買這檔基金來得省事、賺得更多、賺得更穩</li><li>但就算敗給挑戰標的也不用難過,畢竟挑戰標的背後的經理人是職業級中最強的</li><li>與自己操作的機會成本挑戰,可以自我激勵與成長<br /></li></ol><p></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">標的績效之解讀:(以下面的畫面截圖為例)</h2><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span><span>近五年月報酬夏普值:</span><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">1.46</span></b><span style="color: red;">(紅色框框),此值即為挑戰的比較分數</span></span></li><li><span>近五年年化報酬率:</span><b style="color: #674ea7;">31.8</b><span style="color: #674ea7;">(= 2.65 * 12;紫色框框)</span>(註3)</li><li><span>近五年年化波動率:</span><b style="color: #ffa400;">21.44</b><span style="color: #ffa400;">(橘色框框)</span></li></ol><p></p><p><span style="color: #cccccc;">註3:YAHOO的內部夏普值計算公式中的分子用的仍是正確的年化報酬率,而畫面上顯示的月報酬平均數只是把</span><span style="color: #cccccc;">年化報酬率除以12而已(算術平均)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpHlEEFEQJ1PkwhSRfIanB-CSmvUNMJmhDv1KUeUbAhuyOPz4IFVM0L9mXXULrPkgbdoIuaAtfg02YEKYg5cUd7qlTL00-PMyQ5CmvP200Fl3r1ryLcwpa9QZsNc98jREJ5MDTd1HBqCsC9mvdRhGvDW7Eoqv6RV4L28mT_nmY2CnuV5_lQKH7M2ROnQ/s758/2022-4-9%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-44-19.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="758" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpHlEEFEQJ1PkwhSRfIanB-CSmvUNMJmhDv1KUeUbAhuyOPz4IFVM0L9mXXULrPkgbdoIuaAtfg02YEKYg5cUd7qlTL00-PMyQ5CmvP200Fl3r1ryLcwpa9QZsNc98jREJ5MDTd1HBqCsC9mvdRhGvDW7Eoqv6RV4L28mT_nmY2CnuV5_lQKH7M2ROnQ/s320/2022-4-9%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-44-19.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">夏普值計算公式:</h2><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQCMLJj_h8ITWky9cU8CRTICgc8zeKhciTn9Gz1loLCR6TIh_RjN6womVriJeGZBCyaV4Fgn1Y8qEyAoY9BB0R4emY37hu_7Bv_iE09bS7xVi1iFEqDyGqp_k88bBVVCK3UH09tStCPE7qbxeWBNJ-nJYwHAi-VYlOdBGrPd8U7Ub8LCVs7Q4j8gbmlw/s1282/2022-4-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-17-05.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="1282" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQCMLJj_h8ITWky9cU8CRTICgc8zeKhciTn9Gz1loLCR6TIh_RjN6womVriJeGZBCyaV4Fgn1Y8qEyAoY9BB0R4emY37hu_7Bv_iE09bS7xVi1iFEqDyGqp_k88bBVVCK3UH09tStCPE7qbxeWBNJ-nJYwHAi-VYlOdBGrPd8U7Ub8LCVs7Q4j8gbmlw/s320/2022-4-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-17-05.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-6340915276500242082024-01-01T21:12:00.006+08:002024-02-06T12:18:40.369+08:00MultiCharts系統問題導致自動交易中斷<p>此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multicharts.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts自動交易中斷發警示郵件</a>』提到的方法,在一般情況的自動交易中斷,都可成功發警示郵件,但如果遇到的是MC系統問題,就無法透過這個方法來發警示郵件了,因為MC系統問題會導致交易訊號,全部強制轉為不啟用的狀態,我遇到過的MC(MultiCharts)系統問題導致自動交易中斷有兩種(如下圖所示):</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>MC授權主機連線中斷</li><li>莫名的訊號錯誤</li></ol><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSY3BAgP5znsY9iJKoum1PcscW5CUISnJ-osjDXJ_9vLg2Dq9xIjAMfp9ppvFpHKC7KbOf_WS3xRQGvZCDqALRfTHE0KVvg2kEBW3OV2jKIW9HsXICb5Q6p8Ku-PI5IEtSPeqULcdLEajIy-k53caym17jYeblmHYLSdOrFALZ9EbZcpRNKj3PmiHA9M-6/s320/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-46-57.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="117" data-original-width="320" height="117" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSY3BAgP5znsY9iJKoum1PcscW5CUISnJ-osjDXJ_9vLg2Dq9xIjAMfp9ppvFpHKC7KbOf_WS3xRQGvZCDqALRfTHE0KVvg2kEBW3OV2jKIW9HsXICb5Q6p8Ku-PI5IEtSPeqULcdLEajIy-k53caym17jYeblmHYLSdOrFALZ9EbZcpRNKj3PmiHA9M-6/s1600/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-46-57.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ZyBti3xxcX5qWvzYBHgt1xWbSS-IGBsTKHwLL4RBg0Uz5VI83BZQo0OybU92Nl_GAOVDCAgQJ9qI9-gKmPQi-pI8WSNyd9RwhwUX2JqmyNktFywhZCtLfUdQRYdoB-QzsK20-DN7YIbcGx4hkxukK_CaCAuA3F5H7255AYLbggbm4rRVPSz8yiiDBa4s/s320/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-47-32.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="137" data-original-width="320" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8ZyBti3xxcX5qWvzYBHgt1xWbSS-IGBsTKHwLL4RBg0Uz5VI83BZQo0OybU92Nl_GAOVDCAgQJ9qI9-gKmPQi-pI8WSNyd9RwhwUX2JqmyNktFywhZCtLfUdQRYdoB-QzsK20-DN7YIbcGx4hkxukK_CaCAuA3F5H7255AYLbggbm4rRVPSz8yiiDBa4s/s1600/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-47-32.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>其實早期的MC是比較穩的,完全沒遇到過這兩種MC系統問題所導致的自動交易中斷,但後期MC版本的穩定度確實變差了,所以需要額外的注意與處理</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">MC授權主機連線中斷</h3><p>此問題要注意的是,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>不要一次突然開大量的圖,否則容易會出現MC誤判為授權主機連線異常</b></span>,早期我每日的歷史資料維護,每次都直接開45個圖也都沒事(每個圖只載入七日的資料),但現在我保守的降低到一次只開15個圖,隔幾分鐘後再開另外的15個圖,直到45個圖全部都開滿(至於真正的連線主機無法連線,這點倒不用擔心,因為英文版MC的授權主機共有三個區域:美國、英國、新加坡,所以要同時連續30分鐘一台都連不上,也極難)</p><p>此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/12/mc.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">『交易關閉時自動取消委託單』碰到MC授權情況的問題</a>』的案例就是這類</p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">莫名的訊號錯誤</h3><p>此問題分成兩種情況</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>IOG當沖收盤平倉的寫法(搭配[intrabarordergeneration = true]與[AllowSendOrdersAlways = true]),此種寫法早期版本的MC都可以正常下平倉單,不會出現莫名的訊號錯誤,導致自動交易中斷,但後來的MC版本被改到出問題了,大部分的時候都還是可以正常,但有時候會出現此現象,所以<span><span style="color: #990000; font-weight: bold;">要改成Bar Close的方式平倉為主,而IOG當沖收盤平倉為輔(或完全不使用</span><b style="color: #990000; font-weight: bold;">IOG當沖收盤平倉的機制</b><span style="color: #990000; font-weight: bold;">)</span><br /><span style="color: #cccccc;">註:</span></span><span style="color: #cccccc;">[intrabarordergeneration = true]與[AllowSendOrdersAlways = true]可除了可使用在IOG當沖收盤平倉外,也可使用在當報價停止時立刻平倉部位與取消委託單,但因為MC後期版本的莫名訊號錯誤問題,所以這個機制也不適合使用了</span></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">另一種期況,就是沒有用到IOG,照樣會出現莫名的訊號錯誤</span></b>,導致自動交易中斷,但這種情況發生的機率極低,但真的會發生,不是程式寫法有問題,而是MC內部有問題,這種真的無法做任何事來避免,只能即時監控並處理</li></ol><p></p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">MultiCharts系統問題自動交易中斷警示</h3><p>但凡出現上面這兩種紅底的警示方框,自動交易就會被強制中斷了,且用此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multicharts.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts自動交易中斷發警示郵件</a>』提到的方法,也無法傳送郵件,只能自己寫程式來即時監控並發郵件通知,再藉由此APP『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/10/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">交易環境異常通知APP</a>』在收到郵件時,縱使是在半夜手機也能發出告警聲,把自己叫醒後來即時處理(當沖交易者,部位有問題,半夜也該起床處理),而寫程式來即時監控的地方為下圖的目錄與檔案,有點麻煩,但MC版本越改穩定性越差,也沒辦法,奢求MC改進,倒不如自己監控與處理(不定時發生的問題是最難查的,縱使有人回報這類問題,MC開發人員也未必能在短期間找到bug)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhFBaFHO_usQ58mcu0mRV1UcTtNYdr92HR0jEpmNtO5dazOjahjBaJ7fAEcnB0W5GD1uL1uYF5vlD_NBzbbBLlyAXN3Gb71Xty6a6iZ-CS-ZxMfnrwzYmUJ4HfbSwFIYXEZ0s7CBvGtoM6Ju4kZKp5Q9-kIgnFiOxVSMIRVONigcQns0ZajjX05Tyk-5Tc/s866/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-22-33.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="866" height="92" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhFBaFHO_usQ58mcu0mRV1UcTtNYdr92HR0jEpmNtO5dazOjahjBaJ7fAEcnB0W5GD1uL1uYF5vlD_NBzbbBLlyAXN3Gb71Xty6a6iZ-CS-ZxMfnrwzYmUJ4HfbSwFIYXEZ0s7CBvGtoM6Ju4kZKp5Q9-kIgnFiOxVSMIRVONigcQns0ZajjX05Tyk-5Tc/s320/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-22-33.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4cUzkrhyphenhyphenVlL5YXK9RnGdc0hIbBrOMiTaJQyKmi4nFWDl2LJWtk497WUTtVar4-tlZVxjFNXKqC6Kia0Xzk3iny9QPoEtATRXrtlkIKqW4r0Tb1DB4QdQuRSGyWLSVK32mHu6hyphenhyphenebWPogMQca-PcP0Dyvk-8nh8G6jzucLS5wBl0-abI4QT3eLdp5wavV7/s1233/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-24-37.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="237" data-original-width="1233" height="62" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4cUzkrhyphenhyphenVlL5YXK9RnGdc0hIbBrOMiTaJQyKmi4nFWDl2LJWtk497WUTtVar4-tlZVxjFNXKqC6Kia0Xzk3iny9QPoEtATRXrtlkIKqW4r0Tb1DB4QdQuRSGyWLSVK32mHu6hyphenhyphenebWPogMQca-PcP0Dyvk-8nh8G6jzucLS5wBl0-abI4QT3eLdp5wavV7/s320/2024-1-1%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-24-37.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multicharts.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts自動交易中斷發警示郵件</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/10/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">交易環境異常通知APP</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/12/mc.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">『交易關閉時自動取消委託單』碰到MC授權情況的問題</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multichartsallowsendordersalways.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts的AllowSendOrdersAlways雜紀</a></li></ul><p></p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-22949981615340264702023-12-28T13:42:00.014+08:002023-12-28T20:46:33.231+08:00年底IB的BZ歷史資料回補總是出現空白<p>每年底由IB回補NYMEX的BZ歷史資料,總是會出現一段空白,而且都固定出現在年底,今年就特別下去查看原因,結果發現是BZ商品二月份(G)合約的描述文字都固定是錯誤的(如下圖所示),例如BZG4代表的是2024年的二月份合約,但描述卻為2023年度,如果由Quote Manager重新再載入該商品,仍然是錯誤的商品描述(源頭就已經錯了),這個錯誤會導致該合約無法正常回補歷史資料</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><b><span style="color: #990000;">修正方法:</span></b></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">手動</span></b><b><span style="color: #990000;">把描述文字的年度修正為正確的年度</span></b><b><span style="color: #990000;">(如下圖所示)</span></b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">再把資料清空</span></b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">最後重新回補資料,即可回補到資料</span></b></li></ol><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDJsffZnvKmg6yq-NWicAL5yVioxB8SKhelnrJxMbTx7zbwqdSWop6CIyWWNL2sOKi4HQCDvraFLKN-uGWUGwc4sua8-77mJa3uMTVTqnunZk5r24YixtlZcyGWhM0Tud538AQ5Y9t961AwnTL87PJgypeqduSieS5UjrgRx57F-QkHLdrMbpCN5vakkpK/s957/2023-12-28%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-19-35.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="242" data-original-width="957" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDJsffZnvKmg6yq-NWicAL5yVioxB8SKhelnrJxMbTx7zbwqdSWop6CIyWWNL2sOKi4HQCDvraFLKN-uGWUGwc4sua8-77mJa3uMTVTqnunZk5r24YixtlZcyGWhM0Tud538AQ5Y9t961AwnTL87PJgypeqduSieS5UjrgRx57F-QkHLdrMbpCN5vakkpK/s320/2023-12-28%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-19-35.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-79885396030451757452023-12-22T12:01:00.028+08:002024-01-28T10:58:32.731+08:00IB歐元轉到AMP<p>在『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/12/amp.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AMP負幣別轉換(平倉)在月底</a>』這篇文章提到,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>如果月底有負的歐元,AMP會自動強制轉換為美金(基礎幣別),而且還會額外收取$30的手續費</b></span>,但其實由IB手動轉歐元到AMP,即可省下這$30的手續費(縱使IB戶頭沒有歐元,在IB美金換歐元最低(10萬以內)也只收取$2手續費)</p><span></span><p>目前<a href="https://www.ampfutures.com/client-portal/funding-instructions" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AMP的歐元匯入帳號</a>如下</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAEwoLGnQJviob0bqh90q99fiX9AkYKSu_0uV9TiM5GxBbF_wtRsNM38Em8Y_bK4bJQNaJ-LNZvbbD2WpdRB3lxVduVIp9HvkhQy50BP3rw_X18FDw41I8JoCdeuugfWYNCY4hrXJGFWyrxsA_H7aAjBHc5a9uNvVxn62z7WSgV3ttqATwcYu42xt5pgfb/s1271/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-58-31.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="1271" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAEwoLGnQJviob0bqh90q99fiX9AkYKSu_0uV9TiM5GxBbF_wtRsNM38Em8Y_bK4bJQNaJ-LNZvbbD2WpdRB3lxVduVIp9HvkhQy50BP3rw_X18FDw41I8JoCdeuugfWYNCY4hrXJGFWyrxsA_H7aAjBHc5a9uNvVxn62z7WSgV3ttqATwcYu42xt5pgfb/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-58-31.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">IB轉歐元到AMP的須知事項</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>要選【Bank Wire】方式,不能選【SEPA】,因為【SEPA】方式無法指定AMP的交易帳號</li><li>【Barclays BankLC – United Kingdom(BARCGB22)】的歐元(EUR)中轉行是<b><span style="color: #990000;">【Barclays Bank Ireland PLC, Frankfurt Branch(BARCDEFF)】</span></b>,也就是目前IB預設的中轉行,請參照『<a href="https://home.barclays/content/dam/home-barclays/documents/who-we-are/our-strategy/Brexit/BBI%20PLC%20Cash%20SSIs.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Barclays Bank Plc London Treasury Settlements</a>』</li><li>沒有中轉費用(實測過由IB轉100歐元到AMP,實際到帳仍是100歐元,請參考後面實測)</li><li>今日由IB轉出歐元,明日前歐元即可抵達AMP</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3>IB轉歐元到AMP的設定</h3><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB03yYwIa7xx1vgdNjDrvjfvlv1azhmbAqYbr3KEUnfBis7SYcPVAOkTqnp929pOSD6S3Q9vaCrNNnqhVDnfvBJLZqnlvydvt6MKUrv1IS3bU8IZlsDtXmEcyrXgxVIAbOQRWtsQugqxjSyVsxvi9TDEUJ_iyLTdKTDqkVn9FubET6Gu5VDqpZmL9qk7Q9/s1385/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-41-23.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="565" data-original-width="1385" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB03yYwIa7xx1vgdNjDrvjfvlv1azhmbAqYbr3KEUnfBis7SYcPVAOkTqnp929pOSD6S3Q9vaCrNNnqhVDnfvBJLZqnlvydvt6MKUrv1IS3bU8IZlsDtXmEcyrXgxVIAbOQRWtsQugqxjSyVsxvi9TDEUJ_iyLTdKTDqkVn9FubET6Gu5VDqpZmL9qk7Q9/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-41-23.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizqDx7rRTrXgcsvBBZY66U0vrxaguXG5pIOQEDea-q16b3Udyx0gaEahiXIomKrQf5tKDFJ4z-yhupsXJotTw8rls1E6tdvku1l57bCbVZJYzHQWpK-QilS5d-zw0U3HYwWOlIiRP4Kpjo3IhJknxmiCAcbMwdaQ1g0VZaHifchcuMKrajCzu66WpWjSuV/s1384/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-42-28.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="651" data-original-width="1384" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizqDx7rRTrXgcsvBBZY66U0vrxaguXG5pIOQEDea-q16b3Udyx0gaEahiXIomKrQf5tKDFJ4z-yhupsXJotTw8rls1E6tdvku1l57bCbVZJYzHQWpK-QilS5d-zw0U3HYwWOlIiRP4Kpjo3IhJknxmiCAcbMwdaQ1g0VZaHifchcuMKrajCzu66WpWjSuV/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-42-28.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWBxKiGY370o6hF8UjXjQpaoGmn_7hLyvOkZAhlyghyphenhyphen6UbDJ8TbLICxD5hEpPlB02A9SImFDgLfQOmk3Clx6Qa6yiWVbDmv2lKeeubqig9-YIew3tp9yrYqTd3sIZsuNfxaMytHZkq3zpnU5oVSOLF1Gzkjwq20ptZrsgJ6q50t7okaB9RIfbdFQm7QOio/s1370/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-25-11.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1370" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWBxKiGY370o6hF8UjXjQpaoGmn_7hLyvOkZAhlyghyphenhyphen6UbDJ8TbLICxD5hEpPlB02A9SImFDgLfQOmk3Clx6Qa6yiWVbDmv2lKeeubqig9-YIew3tp9yrYqTd3sIZsuNfxaMytHZkq3zpnU5oVSOLF1Gzkjwq20ptZrsgJ6q50t7okaB9RIfbdFQm7QOio/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-25-11.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6M6reBIgwQF687NibpX5YhEEvasSgT-x5aWSypa6hAt8FdN6fyYoBSeHM0EHODTmCIf87yYJ7NoQw9WHGWpx_EGBjIsqSyDu3YMwnoIRo7MykQZ46XPcyd8TFEjqHAwzjWxXZyI1Mxis4M3US6C_Ta0DIStBb7GOWyjtL2hYhv0jfb7GkiaCUKJOLnY4j/s1389/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-28-29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1389" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6M6reBIgwQF687NibpX5YhEEvasSgT-x5aWSypa6hAt8FdN6fyYoBSeHM0EHODTmCIf87yYJ7NoQw9WHGWpx_EGBjIsqSyDu3YMwnoIRo7MykQZ46XPcyd8TFEjqHAwzjWxXZyI1Mxis4M3US6C_Ta0DIStBb7GOWyjtL2hYhv0jfb7GkiaCUKJOLnY4j/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-28-29.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpT5CZp2SpPIVwxmbA7dJATFGKBKBp712ZB6fhXYcqXfLexivk-Y5wuQBJb-5SVp0dPsqkBW0Sst-HiBQG3_QlUOsCEhAE2B8gOyYSGQe1YYokBHTfY3xTeuR4rTjyDEmppSCX3qp05VibtKaBqA8Cl71ImLsIQXp47c_6WjT8gHcCaR1g_u0EyKDmymiT/s1380/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-33-15.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="841" data-original-width="1380" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpT5CZp2SpPIVwxmbA7dJATFGKBKBp712ZB6fhXYcqXfLexivk-Y5wuQBJb-5SVp0dPsqkBW0Sst-HiBQG3_QlUOsCEhAE2B8gOyYSGQe1YYokBHTfY3xTeuR4rTjyDEmppSCX3qp05VibtKaBqA8Cl71ImLsIQXp47c_6WjT8gHcCaR1g_u0EyKDmymiT/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-33-15.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">IB轉歐元到AMP實測</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5BaAWkfZjuJdOGuW7pEnWbjnUPGPkq9K8wZfeSZhWmy-1MEAFGVoEmtdkEqKiS2SjXegCUdgp6CyqaTUC4W1pnCk_IzI6N0kC5TGIs_0iyC4eku8yiXgIrZ6CBM_W6odIYa5Shf5iucxNoQQG9UfpPvo2K5Bv5qGjBZK9rVhkaJPCeWJ95J-eqi9pMlW/s1117/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2004-39-33.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="871" data-original-width="1117" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5BaAWkfZjuJdOGuW7pEnWbjnUPGPkq9K8wZfeSZhWmy-1MEAFGVoEmtdkEqKiS2SjXegCUdgp6CyqaTUC4W1pnCk_IzI6N0kC5TGIs_0iyC4eku8yiXgIrZ6CBM_W6odIYa5Shf5iucxNoQQG9UfpPvo2K5Bv5qGjBZK9rVhkaJPCeWJ95J-eqi9pMlW/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2004-39-33.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEy1oCo2MR_kOcArPaUGv3ZW2PsjH6UsO3T5i7z208acub7JLS_CKRO6FR6tVglJ1YvJlYAGSyAF2cphnVHsmuHd7ID17XGQJOdzflrlijYCYdUQqISUb7Ny2GouilWXxmh0E8dywp_10ZgzUazKQT5oTP4qIohQrzUiH7AhQpIt7RGohU4c7uke5Dme2B/s1257/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2004-53-17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="1257" height="127" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEy1oCo2MR_kOcArPaUGv3ZW2PsjH6UsO3T5i7z208acub7JLS_CKRO6FR6tVglJ1YvJlYAGSyAF2cphnVHsmuHd7ID17XGQJOdzflrlijYCYdUQqISUb7Ny2GouilWXxmh0E8dywp_10ZgzUazKQT5oTP4qIohQrzUiH7AhQpIt7RGohU4c7uke5Dme2B/s320/2023-12-22%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2004-53-17.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/12/amp.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AMP負幣別轉換(平倉)在月底</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/ibamp.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">IB資金轉到AMP</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/ampib.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">AMP資金轉到IB</a></li></ul><div><br /></div><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-32590023528660733082023-12-03T09:50:00.032+08:002023-12-18T14:37:58.190+08:00『交易關閉時自動取消委託單』碰到MC授權情況的問題<p style="text-align: left;">我留倉策略的慣例是,在以下時間點會把交易所的有效委託單全部抽掉(於指定時間丟出RaiseRuntimeError,再藉由MC的交易關閉來取消委託單)</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>每日MC(MultiCharts)重啟前</li><li>周五收盤前(或例假日前)</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">但週六一早醒來卻發現還有兩筆有效委託單掛在交易所,找了快兩個小時才找到原因,一開始還以為MC的新版有問題,認為『<span style="color: #990000;"><b>交易關閉時自動取消委託單</b></span>』這個功能在新版有問題(如下圖所示),後來發現不是這個功能有問題,但其實仍與這個功能有關</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5JdRenSOhmBtg5Ud1sG4IqmBUiXm9jBNup0ICkLd_quFUHoudRoMDFKmLVYCHEDs6RmnTpw8nuV6ueAWnddih008rsvxX1AsRZnFwEEKz_8y-gb_JvLlFMW6wRpdrGcbjU8loIwGK-N7NBWcMAgWfXc-tapnA8KGJSEzV8gIWVtrHUDNro869D5rBDC8G/s673/2023-12-2%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2007-00-09.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="602" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5JdRenSOhmBtg5Ud1sG4IqmBUiXm9jBNup0ICkLd_quFUHoudRoMDFKmLVYCHEDs6RmnTpw8nuV6ueAWnddih008rsvxX1AsRZnFwEEKz_8y-gb_JvLlFMW6wRpdrGcbjU8loIwGK-N7NBWcMAgWfXc-tapnA8KGJSEzV8gIWVtrHUDNro869D5rBDC8G/s320/2023-12-2%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2007-00-09.png" width="286" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;">最後發現在上星期美東時間的11/27 17:33時,MC的授權連線出問題(如下圖所示),當時所有的自動交易全部被強迫關閉,在這種情況下,『<span style="color: #990000;"><b>交易關閉時自動取消委託單</b></span>』這個功能是不會起作用的,所以關閉時委託單仍殘留在交易所,這是此問題的第一個點</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzb5M6fX8iOSSJuBJPSVZBMxh4Lb9ThZTwfbd8X5Cm6wcJRmoCfZLVMSx6OgCCzPBIhUGWckPkwjJmTO0LmIermDVO4wRYU8uyrAEjB_D0fuEk1dd9M4-ObSPFk6sJYOZjbmOJ-zN5s6rARaJPVosiQOjzliJY50yUOzie9S3DOyJxIfFqHIpQzCzBOpg7/s320/2023-12-13%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-26-45.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="92" data-original-width="320" height="92" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzb5M6fX8iOSSJuBJPSVZBMxh4Lb9ThZTwfbd8X5Cm6wcJRmoCfZLVMSx6OgCCzPBIhUGWckPkwjJmTO0LmIermDVO4wRYU8uyrAEjB_D0fuEk1dd9M4-ObSPFk6sJYOZjbmOJ-zN5s6rARaJPVosiQOjzliJY50yUOzie9S3DOyJxIfFqHIpQzCzBOpg7/s1600/2023-12-13%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-26-45.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">第二個點是,MC授權連線出問題的時間點為美東17:33,正好是收盤後與開盤前這一小時,當我重啟MC後,再看委託單,有發現這兩筆委託單,但當時我認為這是重啟MC後,再送出的新委託單,所以不以為意,但其實在沒有特別設定AllowSendOrdersAlways屬性時,MC14是要等到開盤時才會真的送出委託單,請參考此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multichartsallowsendordersalways.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts的AllowSendOrdersAlways雜紀</a>』</p><p style="text-align: left;">所以如果有啟用『<span style="color: #990000;"><b>交易關閉時自動取消委託單</b></span>』這個功能,當有異常時的SOP處理應該是</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>關閉MC</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>再重新開啟MC</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>開啟MC的『Order and Position Tracker』視窗,切換到『Orders』頁籤,把Source欄位由『All』切換到『Mannual Orders』,查看是否仍有Pending Orders,如果有全部取消掉</b></span></li></ol><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #e69138;"><b>註:不是在此次自動交易啟動後所送出的委託單,全部會被歸類到『Mannual Orders』,縱使是上次自動交易時所送出的委託單也是</b></span></div><p></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/multichartsallowsendordersalways.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MultiCharts的AllowSendOrdersAlways雜紀</a></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-27286384873246284832023-12-02T18:49:00.013+08:002024-01-28T10:59:07.273+08:00AMP負幣別轉換(平倉)在月底<p style="text-align: left;">AMP是不會因為負幣別餘額而向客戶收取利息的(這點跟IB不同),當有負幣別餘額時,可自己申請轉換,但如果沒有的話,AMP每個月會自動幫你轉換幣別平倉,根據下面這篇文章,一直以來都以為是在第三周</p><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://forum.ampfutures.com/forum/amp-brokerages-and-trading-information/banking/202-explanation-of-currency-conversion-process-and-requirements-multi-currency-accounts" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Explanation of currency conversion process and requirements - Multi-Currency Accounts</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieGTJl7MjPGRf1-Z0i0VnG5rlSFD42i0sZgL2CVlmdD3OgSzdEP_8m7wc0Mpqf-TKB-sqTH3cWjo-lZ4LbSW6FyusQL_-Gp0cxXl8ce34IaF7V3bxxouFdo1Sc0dT4OKHTkwaGwDYE6Yechi26M48xG58CVU7JFXE-LGce46S2ScH06yRlBj12WtSe0Cge/s1210/2023-12-2%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-30-29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="127" data-original-width="1210" height="34" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieGTJl7MjPGRf1-Z0i0VnG5rlSFD42i0sZgL2CVlmdD3OgSzdEP_8m7wc0Mpqf-TKB-sqTH3cWjo-lZ4LbSW6FyusQL_-Gp0cxXl8ce34IaF7V3bxxouFdo1Sc0dT4OKHTkwaGwDYE6Yechi26M48xG58CVU7JFXE-LGce46S2ScH06yRlBj12WtSe0Cge/s320/2023-12-2%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2006-30-29.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">剛好11月份有負幣別餘額,發現兩件事</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>每月自動負幣別轉換(平倉)其實是在月底最後一天<span style="color: #990000;"><b>(但有時候會在月底的前一周)</b></span></li><li>如果是AMP的第二個帳號有負幣別,例如-1,000歐元,則換進來的+1,000歐元會進到AMP的第一個帳號</li></ol><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/12/ibamp.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">IB歐元轉到AMP</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/ibamp.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">IB資金轉到AMP</a></li></ul><p></p><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-26041757096103277682023-11-28T12:21:00.037+08:002024-01-15T10:01:52.285+08:00我的閒置資金利差:+16個基點<p>我的短期閒置資金是停靠在初級拍賣市場的國庫券(T-Bill),目前與SGOV、BIL的SEC Yield利差為+16個基點,我停靠在初級拍賣市場的國庫券已經五個月了,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>在這五個月中常常看到10個基點以上的正利差</b></span>,不過停靠在初級拍賣市場的國庫券稍微麻煩一點,也就是每個星期要固定花五分鐘無腦的手動下一筆市價預約單,但好處是跟次佳停靠處有正的利差,也沒有Withholding Tax</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><p>下面是官方目前公布的SEC Yield殖利率(三個全部都是三個月內的國庫券)</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">SGOV目前的SEC Yield</a>=5.22%</li><li><a href="https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-bloomberg-1-3-month-t-bill-etf-bil" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">BIL目前的SEC Yield</a>=5.26%</li><li>我的拍賣國庫券目前的SEC Yield=<span style="background-color: #fff2cc; color: #990000; font-size: large;"><b>5.42%</b></span></li></ol><p></p><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;">5.42% - Max(5.22%, 5.26%) = <span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;"><b style="background-color: #fff2cc;">+0.16%(利差)</b></span></p><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;">IB活存目前利率為4.83%(單利),換算成SEC Yield為4.88% (= 2 * ((1 + 0.0483 / 12) ^ 6 - 1)),所以與我的拍賣國庫券利差更是高達54個基點(5.42% - 4.88% = 0.54%)</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #800180;">註1:SGOV與BIL的SEC Yield每天都在變化,大部分SGOV會高於BIL(因為目前SGOV仍處於費用優惠期的關係),但有時BIL仍會高於SGOV(例如現在),特別是在年底作帳時期</span><span style="color: #800180;">附近</span></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;">註2:短期閒置資金(Money Market)用SEC Yield來衡量殖利率是最合適不過了,因為SEC Yield使用的是當下最近的利率,且年化方式一半使用複利一半使用單利,這樣不高估也不低估的方式很適合短期閒置資金,因為資金隨時都可能抽出來使用,但也可能放到一年</p></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKqfUt281yWWY9bLWNiqtGO7gSGhHW-Xh5wtQRI6yqmU2q4I3_guNXORQQBjj8hN09DPRi5_A_TieQO-QwFJk9DjT454W6mW0FxnYys1YKkGKrzMCfhpljOhrb0WMdXIsYMmvvJlCMvQXkSXNnp7K3Av3uPKuAlbBLNv8_E6fAEKNamyPzq3-AMmsJXvy/s1012/2023-11-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-11-17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="1012" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKqfUt281yWWY9bLWNiqtGO7gSGhHW-Xh5wtQRI6yqmU2q4I3_guNXORQQBjj8hN09DPRi5_A_TieQO-QwFJk9DjT454W6mW0FxnYys1YKkGKrzMCfhpljOhrb0WMdXIsYMmvvJlCMvQXkSXNnp7K3Av3uPKuAlbBLNv8_E6fAEKNamyPzq3-AMmsJXvy/s320/2023-11-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-11-17.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI71IvT4qWdc1cYFXaZjo4c8h5ePxt4B_O8AC5VDt6kzFl-vwPORA2fvgRqWB3nZIpmywKmRw-7Zff7CS2hpLlCVRQfi9Qg2VCNBy9kPay5-71pn6ubxQTWyPJ3NmpSQgcezUxevRAtXUI3wPyxzGas77F-jWl8XnVU0VHznuWmnHoeNwg0sT6QKIGAUwJ/s1267/2023-11-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-13-35.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="355" data-original-width="1267" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI71IvT4qWdc1cYFXaZjo4c8h5ePxt4B_O8AC5VDt6kzFl-vwPORA2fvgRqWB3nZIpmywKmRw-7Zff7CS2hpLlCVRQfi9Qg2VCNBy9kPay5-71pn6ubxQTWyPJ3NmpSQgcezUxevRAtXUI3wPyxzGas77F-jWl8XnVU0VHznuWmnHoeNwg0sT6QKIGAUwJ/s320/2023-11-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-13-35.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJKiVanXK6xiadcHiyCV1moE92S9glP4xjxRlq6kBfyxO0kHwbmSgsFlyngBxTT3SFyzGPeGMqorKBU75yMPtTPY2XiZZzUA1H5JmrknIBpO3wyfgqEuzh6rGUw8BPExyj87DmX2Tenw7GGHeGmdF-hNpSqkCaH-V1yJRtR6j_F1YrM7puM0Raz3rne0ca/s1476/2023-11-27%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-39-14.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1476" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJKiVanXK6xiadcHiyCV1moE92S9glP4xjxRlq6kBfyxO0kHwbmSgsFlyngBxTT3SFyzGPeGMqorKBU75yMPtTPY2XiZZzUA1H5JmrknIBpO3wyfgqEuzh6rGUw8BPExyj87DmX2Tenw7GGHeGmdF-hNpSqkCaH-V1yJRtR6j_F1YrM7puM0Raz3rne0ca/s320/2023-11-27%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-39-14.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">每星期我都有國庫券到期,同時也每星期固定在拍賣市場以市價買進國庫券,也就是債券階梯,而<span style="color: #990000;"><b>這其實跟台灣的銀行定存到期時,再轉期是相同的,唯一差別就是台灣的定存解約時,未滿一個月不算利息,滿一個月利息還要打八折,但國庫券解約時(在次級市場賣掉),未滿一個月照樣給息(以天計息),而且不但不打折,通常還多送你一兩天的利息(假設FED利率不動的話)</b></span>,以上圖為例,國庫券總庫存的<b><span style="color: #e69138;">YTM為5.57%</span></b>,如果我現在突然需要用錢而在次級市場賣掉的話,跟放到到期的殖利率5.57%相比,<span style="color: #e69138;"><b>還多送1.43天的利息</b></span>,這跟由拍賣市場或次級市場買進無關,而是因為國庫券剩最後一個月時,殖利率的降幅比較大的關係(非FED的升降息)</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/07/TBillAtAuctionComparison.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">國庫券在初級拍賣市場與次級市場的利差比較(含Schwab拍賣下單步驟)</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/07/SpreadOfTBillLadderSgovBil.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">國庫券階梯、SGOV、BIL之間的利差(含拍賣的國庫券階梯佈建與管理)</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/07/NonCompetitiveBiddingOfTBillAtAuction.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">初級拍賣市場的國庫券用市價購買放心嗎?</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/05/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">債券庫存管理</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post_29.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">BOXX、SGOV、BIL的30-Day SEC Yield比較</a></li></ul><div><br /></div><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-13366760968874439102023-11-26T09:19:00.046+08:002023-12-27T12:45:39.754+08:00投資組合的必要之惡<p>在上一篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">無懸念的下架紀念</a>』文中提到的下架策略,其實在我的投資組合之中,該策略的WFO樣本外績效(如下圖所示)與實戰績效都是最好且最穩定的策略之一,如果全壓或重壓此策略的話,則過去四年的年化報酬率都會遠高於目前的投資組合,但為何不這麼做?又什麼時機適合這麼做呢?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1VABDysKbaOd51BGo1tICtTXKIDBkWRq5otWVMFJ0vDTsI5y9_EvHu5KjB9BhnLCXjv756bpfpawaJoAWFoKdQi9ehkWP13otncezVc6U6d-KeRrK__vXP02Tk311Ljw1FDWagGWFaLE8VP4QB2O8R8HIyD3fNDwtYvdSNDFfKbRoGZvYSrrTXSpIF11p/s800/2023-11-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-08-23.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="800" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1VABDysKbaOd51BGo1tICtTXKIDBkWRq5otWVMFJ0vDTsI5y9_EvHu5KjB9BhnLCXjv756bpfpawaJoAWFoKdQi9ehkWP13otncezVc6U6d-KeRrK__vXP02Tk311Ljw1FDWagGWFaLE8VP4QB2O8R8HIyD3fNDwtYvdSNDFfKbRoGZvYSrrTXSpIF11p/s320/2023-11-26%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2008-08-23.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">四年績效(2019-2022)與全壓對比</h3><p>下圖是我歷年投資組合的實戰績效,其中2019年到2022年四年間的年化報酬率,計算如下</p><p>(1.<span style="color: #ffa400;">16</span> * 1.<span style="color: #ffa400;">56</span> * 0.<span style="color: #ffa400;">97</span> * <span style="color: #ffa400;">1</span>) ^ 0.25 -1 = <b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">15%</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxGPitRham-4HkJhYLMhvOjJHcwlp75imRu89GMhb6Tbx6oOaewg3Mu0ABRaeEUkvZz6w5NnxOSgKDZkkn140l30x0PgL-HglVBEjLzSOMagFl-72JC-FOvZlRKOwM0bj2m9_Db95tJ29AQL8oTN70yMbSiUcScooPIxmM4zvrR1DVjlKVhP8DgNO_59vT/s866/2023-11-25%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-23-00.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="866" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxGPitRham-4HkJhYLMhvOjJHcwlp75imRu89GMhb6Tbx6oOaewg3Mu0ABRaeEUkvZz6w5NnxOSgKDZkkn140l30x0PgL-HglVBEjLzSOMagFl-72JC-FOvZlRKOwM0bj2m9_Db95tJ29AQL8oTN70yMbSiUcScooPIxmM4zvrR1DVjlKVhP8DgNO_59vT/s320/2023-11-25%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-23-00.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: left;">下圖為此下架策略於上架期間在投資組合所貢獻的實戰淨報酬率,且該策略在投資組合中的資金分配占比為22%,如果全壓此策略的話,可反推2019年到2022年四年間的年化報酬率,如下所示</p><p style="text-align: left;">((1.0<span style="color: #b45f06;">784</span> * 1.<span style="color: #ffa400;">2546</span> * 1.<span style="color: #ffa400;">1158</span> * 1.<span style="color: #ffa400;">2135</span>) ^ 0.25 - 1) / 0.<span style="color: #ffa400;">22</span> = <b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: large;">74%</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNARRBwBWTZGD20jeEATXZTGR_O9tHtz8KL6ZYYryxU-igYZ6Me-F5dJZSjiu0VIvJHggBQ0IQOZGTbkDXODTKXjBMHKuKRVsk2b9ug9YY5CfoGR-jQcn2xQN6kK_q6MVGT5ZXHmOnM0wT4Oxi89LoImX0mvkT_CdfS_bKwlazMLV33aeGY-So99r4-sY/s627/2023-11-25%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-08-06.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="273" data-original-width="627" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkNARRBwBWTZGD20jeEATXZTGR_O9tHtz8KL6ZYYryxU-igYZ6Me-F5dJZSjiu0VIvJHggBQ0IQOZGTbkDXODTKXjBMHKuKRVsk2b9ug9YY5CfoGR-jQcn2xQN6kK_q6MVGT5ZXHmOnM0wT4Oxi89LoImX0mvkT_CdfS_bKwlazMLV33aeGY-So99r4-sY/s320/2023-11-25%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-08-06.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">為何不全壓或至少重壓?</h3><p>很顯然的,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>15%:74%的</b></span><b style="color: #990000;">年化報酬率</b><span style="color: #990000;"><b>差異懸殊,這個例子凸顯出投資組合的必要之惡</b></span>,既然此策略如此優異,如果跑效率前緣(Efficient Frontier)的話,此策略一定也會被分配到很高的比例,但為何我在投資組合仍只配置稍高的22%資金給該策略,而不重壓像是70%的資金呢?(且縱使現在回顧,也絲毫不後悔沒重壓)</p><p>身為人,唯一公平的地方,就是無論財富地位高低,每個人都會死,同樣的,<b><span style="color: #990000;">其實任何策略,無論樣本外的績效多好或多穩定,都一樣可能會出現極大的拉回現象,何時發生無可預知,拉回多大算策略失效,也沒有標準答案,所以限制住任何一個市場或策略失靈所造成的損失上限,比什麼都還重要,</span></b><b><span style="color: #990000;">特別是有幹桿的交易</span></b>(雖然投資組合可提高Risk-Adjusted Return,也可平滑整體的權益曲線,但相形之下,這些都顯得不那麼重要),這就是我明知此策略穩定性與績效最高,但仍堅持不重壓的原因,更完全無視效率前緣</p><p>如果我一開始就全壓(或重壓)的話,雖然前四年會隨著資產的大幅提升,內心充滿無比的快感,但今年就會面臨超過(或接近)50%資金拉回的巨大壓力了,如下圖所示,反過來,我堅持選擇不重壓的模式,雖然這10年內也曾遇到過某些市場或策略的失靈,但整體投資組合的實戰MDD(Max Drawdown)卻始終限縮在27%以內(如下圖所示)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3RPqbw-uixynZJD26m5DYhk2iWT7OHgTB8I3rlEUe0Igq3yN2SZPD8h9ZFIwWr1V3AtMFj6c8CmFCYHKbU_oyIdn6t1U0cg3HVvSvtRKOoj2RIfIpGDurCQCfMLHZTwF5Qb-N68wFCWBwgUDNojafrj5Iak5yyY993Sn7kJOWQlnUcN-wNhgNP0exe8OS/s1347/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-40-16.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1347" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3RPqbw-uixynZJD26m5DYhk2iWT7OHgTB8I3rlEUe0Igq3yN2SZPD8h9ZFIwWr1V3AtMFj6c8CmFCYHKbU_oyIdn6t1U0cg3HVvSvtRKOoj2RIfIpGDurCQCfMLHZTwF5Qb-N68wFCWBwgUDNojafrj5Iak5yyY993Sn7kJOWQlnUcN-wNhgNP0exe8OS/s320/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-40-16.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVNu4lnIGFQiGztSfCgfJGAv7U-fwZN-prPeaZf5aejAi24Zrw-KjLtNv4rEJ2Kwytyn0uqbiFXuMdqTFc9E-peZYymknEw9k2CgH8Yxz2T08IMmrRhR5WOOrBrLcD9sst8rk2NagodnfkEhDkDfqxX-CLUuXvmCc9VJFSZQrQHfjfK6KiptHeO2I3O0o3/s866/2023-12-27%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-43-09.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="866" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVNu4lnIGFQiGztSfCgfJGAv7U-fwZN-prPeaZf5aejAi24Zrw-KjLtNv4rEJ2Kwytyn0uqbiFXuMdqTFc9E-peZYymknEw9k2CgH8Yxz2T08IMmrRhR5WOOrBrLcD9sst8rk2NagodnfkEhDkDfqxX-CLUuXvmCc9VJFSZQrQHfjfK6KiptHeO2I3O0o3/s320/2023-12-27%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-43-09.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">什麼時機適合重壓呢?</h3><p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>年輕剛開始交易且有一份穩定的收入時,如果此時的資金規模比較小但又希望能快點滾大,則此時很適合選擇樣本外績效最好、穩定性最高的市場、策略重壓</b></span>,反正失敗了,頂多再重滾一次就好,不影響生活,但<span style="color: #990000;"><b>如果成功的話,將會是資金滾大最有效率的階段</b></span>,而這個階段需要伴隨一定程度的運氣(運氣指的是所重壓的策略剛好都沒遇到策略大回檔狀況),有些人運氣很好,在這個階段就能滾出很可觀的一筆錢,但見好就收而適時切換到不重壓的模式仍是很重要的(免得冥冥中變成養套殺的對象)</p><p>在資金規模變大後,或者投資獲利變成全部收入的唯一來源時,一定要切換到不重壓單一市場或策略的模式,不知道是吸引力法則或業力所致,人只要是在不順的時候,就容易變得更不順,冥冥中獵人總是很有耐心的不斷反覆查看最佳的狙擊時機,所以千萬不要讓自己成為有機可乘的獵物</p><p><span style="color: #990000;"><b>人的一輩子,縱使獲利績效曾經高達1,000,000,000,000%,但只要一次資產拉回100%,就什麼都灰飛煙滅了</b></span></p><p><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">無懸念的下架紀念</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/wfo_11.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">策略上架條件(WFO幾年回本)</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/blog-post_25.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">投資組合風險管控法則</a></li></ul><p></p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-12615416664220142812023-11-13T23:27:00.049+08:002023-11-26T09:21:35.036+08:00無懸念的下架紀念<p>今天暫時下架了一個市場策略,該策略自2019年上架至今已接近五年,這段期間在整個投資組合的績效淨貢獻度上,本策略就佔有很大的部分,但自今年的8/1高點開始,該策略就大幅度的拉回約50%,並破了近年MDD的紀錄,如下圖所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWWG8A9hbfsoQNAY-7wHECa9VFFvhbma_68b1NoHlaaE1bLr2Rn4tou2Kakcksvbr2XzJoA_1e2WiwTlFM6swGMfGyOfYFbFJGNYq2CdXcBGwx0qvzwsfXF6H4vS_vjLLY_D0XFaAqD6UeuIpt0iOv9jUy997jyw2Kd9mTQwGLZkALPciSMwR8mQQAs6zF/s1347/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-40-16.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1347" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWWG8A9hbfsoQNAY-7wHECa9VFFvhbma_68b1NoHlaaE1bLr2Rn4tou2Kakcksvbr2XzJoA_1e2WiwTlFM6swGMfGyOfYFbFJGNYq2CdXcBGwx0qvzwsfXF6H4vS_vjLLY_D0XFaAqD6UeuIpt0iOv9jUy997jyw2Kd9mTQwGLZkALPciSMwR8mQQAs6zF/s320/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2009-40-16.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;">其實破了近年MDD,不代表策略就一定失效了,也可能只是正常的回檔(市場年年都在飄,有時候飄出去,但之後又會再飄回來),所以選擇繼續用和下架之間,很難說何者才是正確的,但我今天破了近年MDD後立刻選擇下架的主要原因是</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>該市場策略在投資組合中的資金分配占比較高(22%)</b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>該市場策略使用<b>較高</b>的幹桿(近9倍幹桿/當沖策略)</b></span></li></ol>如果該策略的資金占比沒那麼高,且幹桿沒那麼大,我應該會繼續沿用我個人的下架標準,也就是直到破2倍的近年MDD才會下架,下架會伴隨一定程度的錯殺機率,所以這個決定不好下,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>但這次我之所以能這麼果斷的下這個決定,是因為我現在操作的是投資組合,而非單一策略與市場,否則一定會是個騎虎難下且天人交戰的決定,不下架可能會破產,下架又怕只是正常回檔,所以投資組合還真是投資者</b><b>天人交戰的</b><b>必備良藥</b></span><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">註:其實就算是破了2倍的MDD,仍可能只是正常的回檔,臨界點沒有標準答案,但一定要畫一條停止線(可能是2倍、3倍或其他...),而實際上究竟是正常的回檔或者是策略失效了,只能時間拉長,之後才能確認,<span style="color: #b45f06;">通常來說,除非是剛上架就立刻破MDD的Overfitting案例,不然破臨界點後該策略之後的權益曲線容易鈍化,</span><span style="background-color: #fff2cc;"><span style="color: #990000;"><b><span>很可能</span><span>會演變成較大振幅的波浪走法</span><span>(此時幹桿一定要隨之縮小)</span></b></span></span><span style="color: #b45f06;">,之後仍可能創高 ,但這沒有絕對的</span>,這是老天爺決定的事情,渺小的我們其實沒有置喙的餘地</p></blockquote><p style="text-align: left;">其實本策略就是此文『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/wfo_11.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">策略上架條件(WFO幾年回本)</a>』中的第一個範例,也就是0.9年即可回本的策略,但此策略我卻用了近5年,早過了回本的時間了,所以現在退場下架,該策略總結下來仍是獲利出場,算的上是光榮退伍</p><p style="text-align: left;">我身邊有很多親戚、朋友把畢生的積蓄全部都賠在股市,最後身上都沒錢了,其實有時候投資就像在賭博一樣,但投資者與賭徒的最大差別就在於,真正的投資者決不會把自己逼上騎虎難下的窘境,但退一步來說,就算最後真的演變成騎虎難下局面,也一定知道『留得青山在,不怕沒柴燒』的道理,優雅的執行每個既定的決策才是成熟投資者該有的舉措</p><p style="text-align: left;">雖然今天下架了一個重要的策略,但今年的投資組合截至2023/11/10仍保有正報酬10%(如下圖所示),所以內心還不至於產生太大的糾葛,雖然該策略曾是堅實的戰友,多少有點革命情感且心存感恩,但就算如此,也必須放下執著,該斷就斷才是睿智投資者應有的氣度</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFJLpkD2sffSKkTfNz7Esg6U29FJf9rFyZrF6PI2RmOgmJUMJiVE4TS1yRT7u7lyJCavalIp3oqBZzJwXeof_o4aCyk-QF7eBf1GNr6cj5zBW17H1VxVqcwmW_q7h5PmpZvqb3GFSaH9PTjZxBpqnSHGL_PmSTnMCpb2jXWq24ANrxs6N_fmQn_O_eKBB_/s994/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2011-07-37.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="994" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFJLpkD2sffSKkTfNz7Esg6U29FJf9rFyZrF6PI2RmOgmJUMJiVE4TS1yRT7u7lyJCavalIp3oqBZzJwXeof_o4aCyk-QF7eBf1GNr6cj5zBW17H1VxVqcwmW_q7h5PmpZvqb3GFSaH9PTjZxBpqnSHGL_PmSTnMCpb2jXWq24ANrxs6N_fmQn_O_eKBB_/s320/2023-11-13%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2011-07-37.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/11/blog-post_26.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">投資組合的必要之惡</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/wfo_11.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">策略上架條件(WFO幾年回本)</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/blog-post_25.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">投資組合風險管控法則</a></li></ul><br /><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-23788276221683746432023-10-23T11:43:00.005+08:002023-11-07T09:58:31.119+08:00職業級標的挑戰範本 (v1.3 2023-10-23)<p></p><blockquote style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; border: none; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></blockquote><p></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">挑戰義涵、最新挑戰標的,請參考此文:<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/04/challenge.html#meaning" target="_blank">職業級挑戰標的</a></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></p><h2 id="download" style="text-align: left;">範本下載:</h2><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_VpJvwHOtJF_fulMbc3oQWlJ8xqa5nAv5BdhJ8j1aRk/edit?usp=share_link" target="_blank">職業級標的挑戰範本 (v1.3@2023-10-23)</a></p></blockquote><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">範本特色與畫面:</h2><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>可以用來紀錄每個月的操作績效</li><li>計算夏普值與YAHOO基金網站一樣使用月報酬運算週期</li><li>可直接與以下網站的投資標的進行夏普值績效比較(具相同運算周期與滾動長度)</li><ul><li><a href="https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/fund/search?onshore=2&sortBy=return5Y&morningStarRanking=0&return3M=0&return5Y=10" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">YAHOO基金網站</a></li><li><a href="https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lazy Portfolio ETF網站</a></li></ul><li>年化報酬率使用不失真的幾何式運算(網路上大多用會失真的算術式運算)</li><li>近幾年的績效自動滾動運算(新增新資料時無須手動套用新資料)</li><li>長條圖呈現與挑戰標的的PK結果</li><li>長條圖呈現自己近一年到近五年的<span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: 17.6px;">操作績效(</span>夏普值、年化報酬率、年化波動率)</li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfE2fgPrQLMFxykpsPn16Xzk3Ik74LScL1NMifxcLWhE5-Cqk5gEtg5D9ypXgAaGtVMVj3nXHC-9d8GwGoWFRpZunNL8l3kHKiisW64cgITbJQq260rtkXECcnpcqG0t5B1ulILDTFJ_-wQQAjfiTUIndvdgmgVUVoKja6bLbPwyEI6pSFpXNO806XyQ/s1306/2022-4-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-37-32.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="1306" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfE2fgPrQLMFxykpsPn16Xzk3Ik74LScL1NMifxcLWhE5-Cqk5gEtg5D9ypXgAaGtVMVj3nXHC-9d8GwGoWFRpZunNL8l3kHKiisW64cgITbJQq260rtkXECcnpcqG0t5B1ulILDTFJ_-wQQAjfiTUIndvdgmgVUVoKja6bLbPwyEI6pSFpXNO806XyQ/s320/2022-4-23%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-37-32.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">範本使用說明:</h2><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>基本需求只有一個,那就是要有一個google帳號(本範本使用Google試算表)</li><li>請不要插入新的資料列(本範本原本就可輸入長達82年的投資資料,足夠一輩子使用)</li><li>請不要插入新的欄位</li><li>請不要修改上方區塊的計算公式(輸入新資料時,會自動滾動運算,無須手動套用公式內的欄位)</li><li>無須刪除超過五年的舊資料,全部資料都可以一輩子留存,不會影響自動滾動運算</li><li>假設在某個月有提領資金,為了讓提領的資金不會影響到當月份的績效,請當作該筆資金是在月初提領的,也就是使用本試算表記帳時,該筆提領資金必須於【月初資金】欄位先扣除掉</li><li>上個月的【月終資金】與本月的【月初資金】不連續是沒關係的,也不會因此而導致累計報酬率或累計損益的失真,因為月報酬率是獨立使用本月的【月初資金】與【月終資金】計算的,且累計報酬率是採幾何方式計算</li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-38920809649019952023-10-18T12:55:00.008+08:002023-10-20T11:30:45.530+08:00IB伺服器設定芝加哥時歐洲報價連哪裡呢?<p>當IB伺服器設定為香港時,有個選項『Asian Gateway Access』(如下圖所示),可以設定報價主機直接連香港,再由香港代為轉傳美國或歐洲交易所的報價,但如果IB伺服器設定為芝加哥時,就沒有『US Gateway Access』選項可設定,那這樣IB在歐洲的報價會連哪裡呢?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDd_2T8VaFquUhNvQu80nlohGY8WJ6hUHgf9F6NDtRTSZACesLpkLd8xyuqmqUy7KpU-NXgF5JGm1T8k-DgRXhCWQ2bmgsZKaLRjCGWIkqH5nsB2eHc-tbb2wnTVPLqm3iMCopX_IaGQqodVMrIkOIrlA0GeiG4A-X0BTcwEevJ1gnefUVa11d7gPINhsN/s955/2023-10-18%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-32-08.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="955" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDd_2T8VaFquUhNvQu80nlohGY8WJ6hUHgf9F6NDtRTSZACesLpkLd8xyuqmqUy7KpU-NXgF5JGm1T8k-DgRXhCWQ2bmgsZKaLRjCGWIkqH5nsB2eHc-tbb2wnTVPLqm3iMCopX_IaGQqodVMrIkOIrlA0GeiG4A-X0BTcwEevJ1gnefUVa11d7gPINhsN/s320/2023-10-18%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-32-08.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #e69138;">註解:其實台灣居民縱使在『Asia Gateway Access』選項選擇『(b)Market data and other regional services are delivered via the Asia gateway.』,照樣還是沒有作用,客服表示『Asia Gateway Access』選項只供大陸居民使用,實際測試也是如此,如下圖所示</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0-QRjGh562aZWbOhd_oNJX327hgWkj2tI8LVH8BwJaxV0rf19aPfWE29A5eBV-rY4dgsnAiLhgZ2FJQNkXtiJF7aiOeYz2Bl2oNeKkUrkFHFD0cyF-tuAGQe9PqAsYp58KDVCWCi7UCXSrCLJ7-6eOVNPzd50DfoaRRwas4yVQ5LbOIPlDYrHhvYLEIPo/s665/2023-10-20%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-20-51.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="665" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0-QRjGh562aZWbOhd_oNJX327hgWkj2tI8LVH8BwJaxV0rf19aPfWE29A5eBV-rY4dgsnAiLhgZ2FJQNkXtiJF7aiOeYz2Bl2oNeKkUrkFHFD0cyF-tuAGQe9PqAsYp58KDVCWCi7UCXSrCLJ7-6eOVNPzd50DfoaRRwas4yVQ5LbOIPlDYrHhvYLEIPo/s320/2023-10-20%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-20-51.png" width="320" /></a></div><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>回到一開始的問題,我自己實測的結果,如果IB伺服器設定為芝加哥時,IB的歐洲各交易所報價的連線如下</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>歐洲各交易所的即時報價會統一透過IB美東主機傳送(位於紐約附近)</b></span></li><li>但由Quote Manager新增歐洲交易所的商品代號時,則會透過IB歐洲區的瑞士主機,但新增完成一段時間後,此連線會自動關閉(此為臨時性的連線)</li></ol><div><span style="color: #990000;"><b>所以當在美國租用交易主機時,如有用到IB的歐洲地區交易所報價,則也要考量所租用的主機與IB美東主機間的網路穩定度(但就不用特別在意與IB歐洲區的瑞士主機間的網路了)</b></span></div><div><br /></div>實測環境如下<p></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>IB伺服器設定為芝加哥</li><li>MultiCharts執行的主機位於紐約</li></ol><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">實測時的網路連線如下</p><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWl-QQz4Wig0I6emuZSpNVG1Y6lVSFS-UXDGDKpw9gDZL3UlCVIRaFtY1teY8QkBwycUecAbq4fWDzTOQ8YdnPvXlmuSU2BW-_kiYEhTXZcUJNPsR2QpG9IA2quOezTaM6sAvb0EwlDMc5YZ5i_p7M-Xepro9xJhR52exAkMWm7Gk9m2C4pONd1OBcfGtG/s910/2023-10-18%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-02-46.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="910" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWl-QQz4Wig0I6emuZSpNVG1Y6lVSFS-UXDGDKpw9gDZL3UlCVIRaFtY1teY8QkBwycUecAbq4fWDzTOQ8YdnPvXlmuSU2BW-_kiYEhTXZcUJNPsR2QpG9IA2quOezTaM6sAvb0EwlDMc5YZ5i_p7M-Xepro9xJhR52exAkMWm7Gk9m2C4pONd1OBcfGtG/s320/2023-10-18%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-02-46.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-57903233665519822592023-10-18T12:54:00.020+08:002023-12-05T11:13:36.672+08:00實體主機網路測試 - Hivelocity(2023-10-18更新)<p style="text-align: left;">我的實體主機最早是在2016年由ReliableServers租的(約$80左右,後來ReliableServers被併到Vultr旗下),這六七年來對於該主機的網路品質極為滿意,很感謝這段高C/P值的緣分,我在Vultr的這台實體主機在2023/10/31會被下架,如繼續在Vultr租新的實體主機含Windows作業系統最低要$176,本文將實測其他的實體主機替代方案,<a href="https://www.coco-in.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=155524&page=1#pid882445" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">也就是之前Option大分享的Heficed方案(Hivelocity)</a>,含Windows作業系統最低約$60~$80之間,我於2023/10/17已正式將交易主機遷移到Hivelocity的紐約主機了(年繳優惠方案$60.5 / 月)</p><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">不考慮雲端主機的原因</h3><p style="text-align: left;">雖然雲端主機的vCPU是專屬的,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>但硬碟仍是共用的</b></span>,而磁碟是電腦最慢的部分,如果同一台主機上的鄰居正在大量使用磁碟,甚至把磁碟存取的頻寬全部吃光,那自己的雲端主機就會變的很遲鈍,就好像家裡PC磁碟燈閃個不停的時候,此時的電腦存取流暢度</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span>低價主機搜尋</span></h3><p style="text-align: left;">可用以下網址搜尋Hivelocity的低價主機,如沒有找到理想地方的低價主機,可線上與Sales談,跟他說你沒有硬體需求,只要價格低且在你希望的地點即可,Sales了解後會幫你生一台他可授權的最低價格出來(要留意作業系統的費用)<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #ea9999;">註:有些主機有年繳優惠方案,有些沒有,有些還有小時計費方案(可讓你先測試,滿意後再轉成月繳或其他優惠方案),但不是每台都有這些方案,這點要注意,如果當下選定的地點沒有年繳優惠方案,可騎驢找馬,先以月租方式購買當下方案,待有年繳優惠方案後,再停掉原來的主機,重新訂購新的年繳優惠主機(當</span><span style="color: #ea9999;">有年繳優惠方案時,如果一開始先用月繳方式租用且使用OK的話,在仍有年繳優惠方案的期間,要盡快申請切換到年繳方案,因為有時候,那些方案又會消失)</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.hivelocity.net/pricing" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.hivelocity.net/pricing</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiDpJMJYYPPJUtXZh3dhRM_U2lh5Aa7-OdpzQbI-yG7L5xV_gtkyoenzH9Hi9wy8KOF3rpIKx_50-IvHNbXzfkTSRKXh1amuZSSokl3kQgGJjoLl7Lnt05d5swD0n2utZ8Y41eR6kY43Ebt4N6VV9weoq3Xf7Uk75e7-_czndSd8dQYnj1zekEhdPL_AY9/s1425/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-34.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="708" data-original-width="1425" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiDpJMJYYPPJUtXZh3dhRM_U2lh5Aa7-OdpzQbI-yG7L5xV_gtkyoenzH9Hi9wy8KOF3rpIKx_50-IvHNbXzfkTSRKXh1amuZSSokl3kQgGJjoLl7Lnt05d5swD0n2utZ8Y41eR6kY43Ebt4N6VV9weoq3Xf7Uk75e7-_czndSd8dQYnj1zekEhdPL_AY9/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-34.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">決定主機地點前,可先透過官網查詢該地點的Ping值</p><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.hivelocity.net/about/network/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.hivelocity.net/about/network/</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGnFajSbh15xlQnThz00Jjn7rP8nKcN5kHZIxctzq0czQeO6EsWR-ojcesjT86DsjqoIe4tldGZbhqK1tnr9cI9VL7LppV92mjMCPrztr4mDGX9-eeKWRD3OxMR0oR_nmw5kNfDbusYF__ijzkHdYbTAd71AYDRdf5_hhpL8wl2ZEOGQhmlLQVTA-3k9Uq/s1190/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-51-47.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="1190" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGnFajSbh15xlQnThz00Jjn7rP8nKcN5kHZIxctzq0czQeO6EsWR-ojcesjT86DsjqoIe4tldGZbhqK1tnr9cI9VL7LppV92mjMCPrztr4mDGX9-eeKWRD3OxMR0oR_nmw5kNfDbusYF__ijzkHdYbTAd71AYDRdf5_hhpL8wl2ZEOGQhmlLQVTA-3k9Uq/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-51-47.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">也可參考官網揭露的該地點兩年異常紀錄(官方的數據可參考看看,但之後自己實測的最準,也最符合自已的需求)</p><p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.hivelocity.net/about/network/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.hivelocity.net/about/network/</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfyL5GMdJitE6h9x_ar2NA8ExwaeepZOSjMD4RGUi3oyF1JedDwtQCFYe37EvZv7IPJZARe6H2jUhskOp7AFg7go8_zj2eb3qQzWm1E8II6acY485qAW2CHCMv0Gel1bW_ExXv_y2JfFJjizV7MSPmbh5rM77F8sZgR2F6k_5TOJw4pfvkLDAN8qwWQLkh/s1032/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-34-25.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="388" data-original-width="1032" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfyL5GMdJitE6h9x_ar2NA8ExwaeepZOSjMD4RGUi3oyF1JedDwtQCFYe37EvZv7IPJZARe6H2jUhskOp7AFg7go8_zj2eb3qQzWm1E8II6acY485qAW2CHCMv0Gel1bW_ExXv_y2JfFJjizV7MSPmbh5rM77F8sZgR2F6k_5TOJw4pfvkLDAN8qwWQLkh/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-34-25.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinX6LHr_J7tjGgyJWSugVSFltW15eKxNH4lzQjQ4h6j1N8Qr-u7wSjQXxiX4_YpFzuzhnn9XHOVE32fox-kFRRY72IlLDkO7EoxqY2P_Pt1yA_ry57sCLnoybUzr1hdIreOS31yibQ9oW6mAlptVPh5j1HWawJoW8cC3vEb3lmyQWlTe-4EmVsVLTEB403/s1066/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-36-47.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="524" data-original-width="1066" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinX6LHr_J7tjGgyJWSugVSFltW15eKxNH4lzQjQ4h6j1N8Qr-u7wSjQXxiX4_YpFzuzhnn9XHOVE32fox-kFRRY72IlLDkO7EoxqY2P_Pt1yA_ry57sCLnoybUzr1hdIreOS31yibQ9oW6mAlptVPh5j1HWawJoW8cC3vEb3lmyQWlTe-4EmVsVLTEB403/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-36-47.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVDkCBB9YT7byiV6r7hG3tzlzhQ29JFQHRz37zBb0SbsZnRjYECV0Te4XYrUCZGPRxFIIrlj2T29pVGWwDlXud94c96M13yrADvLTep8NAggT3PDGRrk6NWrAvuxioVj49G8j7dL4mdjj4x-j2K6p5u6SO1c2TpP7uB1Er8h7HhVJdV5bWKnq1cXDcpCT/s1089/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-39-30.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="1089" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVDkCBB9YT7byiV6r7hG3tzlzhQ29JFQHRz37zBb0SbsZnRjYECV0Te4XYrUCZGPRxFIIrlj2T29pVGWwDlXud94c96M13yrADvLTep8NAggT3PDGRrk6NWrAvuxioVj49G8j7dL4mdjj4x-j2K6p5u6SO1c2TpP7uB1Er8h7HhVJdV5bWKnq1cXDcpCT/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-39-30.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #f6b26b;">註:圖中EBR = Edge Border Router(連接該IDC與骨幹的路由器),而監控該IDC地點是Up或Down是以ICMP(ping)封包決定,且該監控服務由外部第三方提供</span></p><p style="text-align: left;">我也大致上查看了幾個地點,其中紐約有兩個項目可查看(兩個與骨幹連接的路由器),每個項目兩年內每個月(2021/08 ~ 2023/10)穩定度都是100%,但芝加哥以及好幾個其他地方卻都沒達到這樣的水準,果然跟我的直覺一樣,越是繁華重要的地方,四通八達的網路越穩定</p><p style="text-align: left;">官方提供的數據只能到這裡,之後就要靠自己實測了</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span>實測的實體主機</span></h3><p style="text-align: left;">我租了兩台來進行實際測試比較</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Hivelocity紐約主機:含作業系統$77 / 月(或年繳優惠方案$60.5 / 月)</li><li>Hivelocity芝加哥主機:含作業系統$99 / 月(或年繳優惠方案$75.9 / 月)</li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR36HQ-hQukSxN7kCnGE026zJn8GzG9xmE3xmPseKvmzcOnqAvd9lKiaoCaVbHFcvdX5GZHBRshGueqbGxnephd-CLO8DHsd5KcUpAgqWiMnqYkwE4-lTQpIREj7EpA7UxUL0_WMZQCG3goDvLPz9vIw-k6I1xwjehshjC5SEMFJcEeuTsRlxxPMOwcWQ3/s693/2023-10-30%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2007-13-00.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="391" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR36HQ-hQukSxN7kCnGE026zJn8GzG9xmE3xmPseKvmzcOnqAvd9lKiaoCaVbHFcvdX5GZHBRshGueqbGxnephd-CLO8DHsd5KcUpAgqWiMnqYkwE4-lTQpIREj7EpA7UxUL0_WMZQCG3goDvLPz9vIw-k6I1xwjehshjC5SEMFJcEeuTsRlxxPMOwcWQ3/s320/2023-10-30%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2007-13-00.png" width="181" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5P9yl8BNSu_6imgHgP2KVuTl-Z2qoPr0kz_XkMCU5OoZ25jJ6Ku_2agd-yaX7Zu794V4GPrnnrdFaG6GHQNa8y54bJGGQnJJlja_jDGJnR4SYDdLl1J2tPhnbR3F2YthVEtRJrFOQ-C8PA33_f60LBG2kpvQQkQPmuawJK3-NyYydStY8e-0QV6M0sZsv/s806/2023-10-6%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-16-29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="509" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5P9yl8BNSu_6imgHgP2KVuTl-Z2qoPr0kz_XkMCU5OoZ25jJ6Ku_2agd-yaX7Zu794V4GPrnnrdFaG6GHQNa8y54bJGGQnJJlja_jDGJnR4SYDdLl1J2tPhnbR3F2YthVEtRJrFOQ-C8PA33_f60LBG2kpvQQkQPmuawJK3-NyYydStY8e-0QV6M0sZsv/s320/2023-10-6%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-16-29.png" width="202" /></a></div></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">實測的評選條件</h3><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>TCP封包丟失率:必須低</li><li>TCP封包連續丟失最長秒數:必須短</li></ol></div><div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p></div><h3 style="text-align: left;">實測的網路封包丟失測試方式</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>以實際的TCP封包測試(非ICMP封包)</li><li>每間隔15秒進行一次封包丟失測試採樣</li><li>TCP封包丟失率 = 全部封包丟失次數 / 全部封包採樣總數 * 100%</li><li>TCP封包連續丟失最長秒數 = 15 * (最大連續採樣丟失次數-1)</li><li>連接測試的主機包含</li><ol><li>IB芝加哥主機(美中)</li><li>IB紐約附近的主機(美東)</li><li>IB瑞士主機(歐洲)</li><li>CQG芝加哥主機</li><li>CQG倫敦主機</li><li>Google主機(僅此主機以ICMP測試)</li></ol></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Hivelocity紐約主機實測結果</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>測試期間:2023/10/4 ~ 2023/10/10(連續7天,已實測完畢,如下圖所示)</li><li><b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">TCP封包丟失率:小於0.02%</span></b></li><li><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"><b>TCP</b></span><b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">封包連續丟失<b style="color: black; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">最長秒數</span></b>:約15秒</span></b></li></ul><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1-ketJzzRu6zZwMD4NW2jqdJzNuzsAA-vhL9xTF09iQvIGW1kd0ETYKCziABiPvH__kxBqs9uToWbl8YYMXFwPQ_Vs-9i56IbefnA0tevyBXErtW0lcAtxR9BuGc-TqqYn9pCRPhyePm1tUSb3HJ59Ivmw8xr89zLqLiRRPuWY3WX9-LYOtscijGOHbEC/s1462/2023-10-10%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-45-01.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="1462" height="55" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1-ketJzzRu6zZwMD4NW2jqdJzNuzsAA-vhL9xTF09iQvIGW1kd0ETYKCziABiPvH__kxBqs9uToWbl8YYMXFwPQ_Vs-9i56IbefnA0tevyBXErtW0lcAtxR9BuGc-TqqYn9pCRPhyePm1tUSb3HJ59Ivmw8xr89zLqLiRRPuWY3WX9-LYOtscijGOHbEC/s320/2023-10-10%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2008-45-01.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>2023/10/4 Hivelocity紐約主機外網幾乎全部瞬斷15秒左右(如下圖所示),但仍比<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/05/blog-post_15.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://dedicated.com誇張的7分多鐘瞬斷好多了</a></li></ul><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAOkrtuH_vcob2542FXhxaAq2xGAE_wjJTEvN6-fp7DzF1Pragd167S380s0eWSP8CyPU4hoYzSLdwsn9lOvcP3OPqWeZexkRYyR2Rtr-ERmjx5XxOZKxXURx6H7LdM2UdA9jSKx1bah1594o75WychlDD89DHy045zm6n2WpS8CyiPLCTzYZsO0CyC5fI/s1489/2023-10-5%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-50-29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="1489" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAOkrtuH_vcob2542FXhxaAq2xGAE_wjJTEvN6-fp7DzF1Pragd167S380s0eWSP8CyPU4hoYzSLdwsn9lOvcP3OPqWeZexkRYyR2Rtr-ERmjx5XxOZKxXURx6H7LdM2UdA9jSKx1bah1594o75WychlDD89DHy045zm6n2WpS8CyiPLCTzYZsO0CyC5fI/s320/2023-10-5%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-50-29.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Hivelocity芝加哥主機實測結果</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>測試期間:<span style="background-color: white;">2023/10/11 ~ 2023/10/17(連續7天,已實測完畢,如下圖所示)</span></li><li><b><span><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">TCP封包丟失率:小於0.03%</span><br /><span style="color: #ea9999;">(不含2023/10/11本主機與IB瑞士主機之間<b><span>一小時</span></b>網路異常那次)</span></span></b></li><li><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;"><b>TCP</b></span><b><span><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">封包連續丟失最長秒數:約45秒</span><br /></span></b></li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ItYJVbNjRnwk_nQtj_WhP7-4_xMb_GZrloCuxyhromPUSYunYWAYvW7Ix1sQUNn_z6v7_lKjtMIXz7pzon-QopDSFX13xn14a7gE7fsTuFqrXB7iEFzxdaOUVRoRcvSLgyo-UEKlR6oWV3dF_f3VHmYyi7mXBURF7qQ1lPDJ4HtlxEs2lmWcxmHU8biE/s1460/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2012-05-39.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="1460" height="52" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8ItYJVbNjRnwk_nQtj_WhP7-4_xMb_GZrloCuxyhromPUSYunYWAYvW7Ix1sQUNn_z6v7_lKjtMIXz7pzon-QopDSFX13xn14a7gE7fsTuFqrXB7iEFzxdaOUVRoRcvSLgyo-UEKlR6oWV3dF_f3VHmYyi7mXBURF7qQ1lPDJ4HtlxEs2lmWcxmHU8biE/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2012-05-39.png" width="320" /></a></div></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: red;"><b>2023/10/11 Hivelocity的芝加哥主機到IB瑞士主機當天的封包丟失率接近2%(有一個小時處於非常不穩定的狀態)</b></span>,但同時段,無論是由Hivelocity的紐約主機或是由Vultr的紐澤西主機到IB瑞士主機的封包丟失率皆低於0.03%(如下圖所示),<b><span style="color: red;">但只有那一小時有問題,之後又恢復正常,這種問題最難找,也不知何時再發生</span></b></li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIH65nQGYH_BEX5E7s5-Yd2zGFKfUJUUyd__rrCY_vgJX2KfAHaAfQXN4rCoQoz5AASV33zh5bxFMaFA2OPKQCj0FkRaUcP74NGB7QGagbYBXzyv8jLzqhS8OunkZz6MEtxRArbnPNd4i-Uvsgpu_9BGPmGo7qxlHr9hVyQGdsK_0YPCUGtG53f3TFgDAY/s1472/2023-10-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-35-59.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="1472" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIH65nQGYH_BEX5E7s5-Yd2zGFKfUJUUyd__rrCY_vgJX2KfAHaAfQXN4rCoQoz5AASV33zh5bxFMaFA2OPKQCj0FkRaUcP74NGB7QGagbYBXzyv8jLzqhS8OunkZz6MEtxRArbnPNd4i-Uvsgpu_9BGPmGo7qxlHr9hVyQGdsK_0YPCUGtG53f3TFgDAY/s320/2023-10-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-35-59.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib86fQev_YgOOSiVr1-YAN9bMplT6th4C8HwCHu4E1h_jdZECRpjZAS7bljz7TMr5l2UvYM8dEkA0-28InODVG81JOOT-T6PWQkKvOR-N2mxtBeB3-j9sroN7AS7-HUb_ArYi5Ym5ThE0v1LEgucULUV05WlExWK2at-u4i35IV_oegVxHYxB7Tq-HjU-q/s673/2023-10-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-11-32.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="673" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib86fQev_YgOOSiVr1-YAN9bMplT6th4C8HwCHu4E1h_jdZECRpjZAS7bljz7TMr5l2UvYM8dEkA0-28InODVG81JOOT-T6PWQkKvOR-N2mxtBeB3-j9sroN7AS7-HUb_ArYi5Ym5ThE0v1LEgucULUV05WlExWK2at-u4i35IV_oegVxHYxB7Tq-HjU-q/s320/2023-10-12%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-11-32.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>2023/10/12 Hivelocity的芝加哥主機發生和紐約主機一樣的情況,外網幾乎全部瞬斷1~15秒左右(如下圖所示)</li></ul><p></p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBAueq-oprHlKWUtUfTvij2Y8zrHKRFHYeNZcrqM8WcW487CSFsnx9O6K8hmzWay4lZhif_Qinj7HMYShzBea79O-aJY4aJ_vzwbtgNI81Htoar2DjFJiJnYsNHLn1P299SGjafubNFqGs95yB1jGEKPnZ_nS7RLPWcZM2nKqzDX-NiEAcsSddsdIeroul" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="243" data-original-width="1471" height="53" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBAueq-oprHlKWUtUfTvij2Y8zrHKRFHYeNZcrqM8WcW487CSFsnx9O6K8hmzWay4lZhif_Qinj7HMYShzBea79O-aJY4aJ_vzwbtgNI81Htoar2DjFJiJnYsNHLn1P299SGjafubNFqGs95yB1jGEKPnZ_nS7RLPWcZM2nKqzDX-NiEAcsSddsdIeroul" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>芝加哥主機的另一個問題是,以TCP封包到IB的芝加哥主機平均時間是13毫秒,但ICMP到IB的芝加哥主機卻只要1~2毫秒(如下圖所示),正常的情況下,兩者應該要很接近才對,而且兩個主機都在芝加哥,TCP封包要花到13毫秒或20毫秒,顯然不合理,而且TCP封包的時間還跳來跳去的,無法穩定下來</li></ul><p></p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFzpwyffGDOF0x0OpTo4fEx0GPzIJNsnSdbBfz7Cnq5K4TZ_et6aAgqMl0n-2Y5zrMttdJD38xNKdbif2M_jU-tMDYnKy_dm-sIhJ--o-BoFlUhke399VvymUqOXvCO33mgCgyQ_In5_UzyW3TrbE2ez_qr3TI8MN65T8pAXvDOtm5dUYVIlIJqcyRibmj" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="1041" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFzpwyffGDOF0x0OpTo4fEx0GPzIJNsnSdbBfz7Cnq5K4TZ_et6aAgqMl0n-2Y5zrMttdJD38xNKdbif2M_jU-tMDYnKy_dm-sIhJ--o-BoFlUhke399VvymUqOXvCO33mgCgyQ_In5_UzyW3TrbE2ez_qr3TI8MN65T8pAXvDOtm5dUYVIlIJqcyRibmj" width="320" /></a></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;">但封包到CQG的芝加哥主機,無論是走ICMP或TCP的時間值都很相似而且很小,也很穩定,這部分是正常的(如下圖所示)</p></blockquote><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi_R-YsSb14x5H4lOXgiIoI1Gq41eL9xsJoBn26v8iWnJNyVseWsmIktFcfWbrnVw6k_Eq7GnQKSr6n_T-TLkaMEpqgQ7m-dpn199l46tnAD09c-eFfJbdi0lmV9Hw6ICvEquikc8patZIGNYmqchyVA-BE2CzEhUudozYZKPIGQhD5WWA4ZkSnxq934tt/s1012/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-35-19.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="1012" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi_R-YsSb14x5H4lOXgiIoI1Gq41eL9xsJoBn26v8iWnJNyVseWsmIktFcfWbrnVw6k_Eq7GnQKSr6n_T-TLkaMEpqgQ7m-dpn199l46tnAD09c-eFfJbdi0lmV9Hw6ICvEquikc8patZIGNYmqchyVA-BE2CzEhUudozYZKPIGQhD5WWA4ZkSnxq934tt/s320/2023-10-14%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2003-35-19.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">交易主機最後落腳</h3><p style="text-align: left;">實測後,我最後決定將交易主機遷移到(退役主機原本在紐約旁的紐澤西)</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>Hivelocity<span style="font-size: x-large;">紐約主機</span>:含作業系統$77 / 月</b></span><span style="color: #990000;"><b>(或年繳優惠方案$60.5 / 月)</b></span></li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>原因如下</b></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>實測的TCP封包丟失率,<span style="color: #990000;">紐約主機(0.02%)比芝加哥主機(0.03%)低</span></b></li><li><b>實測的TCP封包連續丟失最長秒數,<span style="color: #990000;">紐約主機(約15秒)比芝加哥主機(約45秒)短</span></b></li><li><b>實測期間,紐約主機與任何主機間沒有發生嚴重的封包丟失狀況,而<span style="color: #990000;">芝加哥主機與IB瑞士主機有發生一小時的嚴重封包丟失</span></b></li><li><b>芝加哥主機送出的TCP封包,往返IB芝加哥主機來回一趟的時間,比較不穩定(2ms ~ 20ms之間跳來跳去)</b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">MultiCharts (MC)的報價介接模組其實並非十分穩定,一旦遇到網路很不穩定的時期,有可能會因此報價中斷,而且還必須重啟MC才能恢復正常,這種狀況無論是Touchance、IB、CQG、Rithmic,我都遇到過,所以MC對網路穩定的要求會比較高</span></b></li><li><b>雖然芝加哥主機離芝加哥交易所搓合比較近,而紐約主機稍微遠一些,但影響極小</b></li><ul><li><b>芝加哥主機與紐約主機到芝加哥交易所的時間只差約20ms左右</b></li><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">GLOBEX四大交易的停止限價單都直接掛在交易所,所以稍長的送單時間造成的影響性幾乎沒有</span></b></li><li><b>當沖時間結束平倉的市價單其實也無影響(因為並非是在價格突破時丟出去的單),有時往不利的方向滑價,</b><b>有時往有利的方向滑價,長期平均下來會趨近於零</b></li><li><b>唯一有影響的只有價格突破才丟市價單,但我不幹這種事,有</b><b>停止限價單可掛(直接掛在交易所),為何要觸價時才丟市價單呢?</b></li></ul><li><b>事實上根據<b>Hivelocity官網的統計數據</b>,紐約主機是所有的Hivelocity的IDC機房中,離芝加哥相對近且網路相對穩的(但當你問線上客服時,他們會說所有地點的基礎設施都是統一的,所以沒有差別,但實際上各地點的網路品質還是有差,無論是他們官網的統計數據或自己實測)</b></li><li><b>上線後,我發現我那台紐約主機對IB的瑞士主機,有時封包丟失率也會有較高的時候,最高一天有到<b>0.16%</b>,但</b><b><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/10/ib.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">依據我的實測,當IB伺服器設定芝加哥時,歐洲即時報價會連IB的美東主機</a>,所以可以不用特別在意與IB瑞士主機間稍高的封包丟失率</b></li></ol><div>其實實測結果跟Hivelocity的Service Status的官方統計數據差不多,根據他們官方的網路異常統計紀錄,事實上也是紐約主機遠低於芝加哥主機,如下截圖所示</div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUvGberJJSwRRzEJ_ZFP3W2gBB19ODuUo8DzLfHHqLuxyN5ZWyWmJKKc0JziG6vgm8q_CFAa9K4kDr9yPlbVMhBZMtdiZRDH6xfc95NZlVI589sbkkh4FSK_HEf3s4zrQl4hsPt-MpYHrmN20H2MKWASbRAc7_ylK-SicPtOy_KlOf283sBw4VGK1Zcbkp/s1025/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-25-38.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="1025" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUvGberJJSwRRzEJ_ZFP3W2gBB19ODuUo8DzLfHHqLuxyN5ZWyWmJKKc0JziG6vgm8q_CFAa9K4kDr9yPlbVMhBZMtdiZRDH6xfc95NZlVI589sbkkh4FSK_HEf3s4zrQl4hsPt-MpYHrmN20H2MKWASbRAc7_ylK-SicPtOy_KlOf283sBw4VGK1Zcbkp/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-25-38.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9ZoOtwYHPCEGdKd870kzqTMYkESSdt9NVKrkKSB3nanwrrL4fWW6BGyAe9Wng2VFAPPrhNASirBFGpvnHeS7ES0ruIxmN4EZqdnBVnZC1hMeCJ2DW5AVBjrRGsuG0KulivJZR5FF_KmHu33oMFF4b24wziGZT7UuaTzGvoYM-YrIma75bBUycMA47OBBh/s1024/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-28-05.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1024" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9ZoOtwYHPCEGdKd870kzqTMYkESSdt9NVKrkKSB3nanwrrL4fWW6BGyAe9Wng2VFAPPrhNASirBFGpvnHeS7ES0ruIxmN4EZqdnBVnZC1hMeCJ2DW5AVBjrRGsuG0KulivJZR5FF_KmHu33oMFF4b24wziGZT7UuaTzGvoYM-YrIma75bBUycMA47OBBh/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-28-05.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxPg8IWd0Mt27NgxYty_xkKTUNtPsZrQXTHYZJyfWfIcajbJE8Ckqym_8ZVApgYMNz1H5QaGpAt1qLu3l-rui873JGHP4ujIrCjHUMAIRc1SKuCVQfvP2jwtJ9rEgRzWQsbD1SMBCvGmdzYzh4X-Y4-WnpDIB2YLnho0nEW5oyJmzCgqTbfCBJP5wKkFKy/s1029/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-31-27.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1029" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxPg8IWd0Mt27NgxYty_xkKTUNtPsZrQXTHYZJyfWfIcajbJE8Ckqym_8ZVApgYMNz1H5QaGpAt1qLu3l-rui873JGHP4ujIrCjHUMAIRc1SKuCVQfvP2jwtJ9rEgRzWQsbD1SMBCvGmdzYzh4X-Y4-WnpDIB2YLnho0nEW5oyJmzCgqTbfCBJP5wKkFKy/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-31-27.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">紐約主機官方近兩年異常統計(2021/08 ~ 2023/10)</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;"><<此期間並無異常>></span></b></div><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">芝加哥主機官方近兩年異常統計(2021/08 ~ 2023/10)</h3><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDbYTKoQMyAsHoq4flZxCKFWHwxUNjZUbg4bDvCRsVaqScch_6nxpoFZSh-1SRHDCUAYeoDBsQTuaOsOSCqIwIIThSuq7K83DODd6SyJT8ABxTXNfB3xUEvPbgaWWEj389Wts5oFBq_A_ueqf4MyiBKnOP-Gr6ayXypkbf2uTRVoLS6vAkhRXDA-15Dlvz/s1031/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-32-08.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="487" data-original-width="1031" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDbYTKoQMyAsHoq4flZxCKFWHwxUNjZUbg4bDvCRsVaqScch_6nxpoFZSh-1SRHDCUAYeoDBsQTuaOsOSCqIwIIThSuq7K83DODd6SyJT8ABxTXNfB3xUEvPbgaWWEj389Wts5oFBq_A_ueqf4MyiBKnOP-Gr6ayXypkbf2uTRVoLS6vAkhRXDA-15Dlvz/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-32-08.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1O1tb8nsM0mP-6leQMbdH2FqyyNypDnkRmILcbn2gWYkqvETlF7mmHPsh8mrI00LIe3V5HY3zrZfE6Yc3AqUmtxGoW_NkDdWGyTryrwVByUuI6fnxjWIw7oHPkXIVBcF1CbwtT8uxv3hVGHeXZvWoXJKpIMoj37YmYVsHJ_rWc-qkme-EVr82sR-VKKps/s1034/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-36-28.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="1034" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1O1tb8nsM0mP-6leQMbdH2FqyyNypDnkRmILcbn2gWYkqvETlF7mmHPsh8mrI00LIe3V5HY3zrZfE6Yc3AqUmtxGoW_NkDdWGyTryrwVByUuI6fnxjWIw7oHPkXIVBcF1CbwtT8uxv3hVGHeXZvWoXJKpIMoj37YmYVsHJ_rWc-qkme-EVr82sR-VKKps/s320/2023-10-17%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2001-36-28.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p></p><p></p><div><p></p></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-54115446863324903762023-09-19T10:44:00.022+08:002024-03-14T10:09:51.038+08:00Schwab的國庫券與SGOV變現後無縫接軌ACH匯出(預約轉帳功能)<p style="text-align: left;">由Schwab的【Move Money】/【Online Transfer】(Money Link)進行ACH匯出時,<span style="color: #990000;"><b>最快只能選下一個交易日(Cutoff時間為美東17:30),但這是預計入帳日,而實際上該筆款項在前一天(今日)就會由Schwab帳戶扣除</b></span>,也就是說在前一天(今日)Schwab帳戶扣除該筆款項後,如果剩餘資金為負值,則會產生融資利息</p><p style="text-align: left;">其實【Online Transfer】(Money Link)是預約轉帳的功能,而扣帳日總是在【Transfer Date (Completion Date)】的前一個交易日,其實這是個很實用的功能,只是該網頁欠缺足夠的說明,此預約轉帳功能可讓你在賣出證券當下,立即預約在交割日匯出該證券交割款</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij7sf-Ho0rEINRDdZx8DWy9Q_pYUjpceCn9aXGoosKheRooHsdDpQ5lOG0M_brFgUdOyP6mi0hlMNYeUlKdvS9ffgdtk-ptn_QJVKCp6XM2nqTfqKESZ6QVZV5AdqUpLfmJwtI0LGbijUpKopekt7Ws2mXJcpAkfm88QR2Iu2WV40SpJp77RUPsBBFn8X_/s727/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-32-30.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="727" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij7sf-Ho0rEINRDdZx8DWy9Q_pYUjpceCn9aXGoosKheRooHsdDpQ5lOG0M_brFgUdOyP6mi0hlMNYeUlKdvS9ffgdtk-ptn_QJVKCp6XM2nqTfqKESZ6QVZV5AdqUpLfmJwtI0LGbijUpKopekt7Ws2mXJcpAkfm88QR2Iu2WV40SpJp77RUPsBBFn8X_/s320/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2009-32-30.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Schwab的國庫券與SGOV變現後無縫接軌ACH匯出(預約轉帳功能)</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>國庫券<span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">(T + 1)</span>:賣出後即可直接在<b>Schwab預約ACH匯出,【Transfer Date <b><b>(Completion Date)</b></b>】選<b style="background-color: #f4cccc;">(T + 2)</b>,而前一個交易日<b>(T + 1)</b>就會由Schwab帳戶扣除,也就是扣帳日正好是賣出國庫券的交割日</b></b></span></li><li><span style="color: #990000;"><b>SGOV<span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">(T + 1)</span>:</b></span><b style="color: #990000;">賣出後即可直接在<b>Schwab預約ACH匯出,【Transfer Date <b><b>(Completion Date)</b></b>】選<b style="background-color: #f4cccc;">(T + 2)</b>,而前一<b><b><b>個交易日</b></b>(T + 1)</b>就會由Schwab帳戶扣除</b></b><b style="color: #990000;">,也就是<b><b>扣帳</b></b>日正好是賣出SGOV的交割日</b></li></ul><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: #fff2cc; color: #990000;">註:SGOV自2024/5/28起由T + 2改為T + 1</span></blockquote><p></p><p style="clear: both;">預約轉帳後,也會收到如下的確認信,在轉帳被執行前,仍可取消,如下圖所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIJVNaaOTk0McbZ3MjuP6HlTsIqH7o_KH6Oc42x5rz0NsRGKWvq9hYL5NYx5dyNn434Vj9fl_r0-a2uSVMeJFMzQW8KUlkWTA1bNqaI7O9lmf9djOxrjORH99yOYR3LSkXQWnMKpNF4pFnIzGQnEdk3vjqy9PrV3GMjIS3w96qtz4h_bbKEh1YPJbFo94J/s964/2023-9-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2005-25-33.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="964" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIJVNaaOTk0McbZ3MjuP6HlTsIqH7o_KH6Oc42x5rz0NsRGKWvq9hYL5NYx5dyNn434Vj9fl_r0-a2uSVMeJFMzQW8KUlkWTA1bNqaI7O9lmf9djOxrjORH99yOYR3LSkXQWnMKpNF4pFnIzGQnEdk3vjqy9PrV3GMjIS3w96qtz4h_bbKEh1YPJbFo94J/s320/2023-9-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2005-25-33.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dMHFtLU6j5X3vMNXGfAGuLk9bflmrG9vcRN5IrHeKKCeIuvRTQm32EZVT8sseZpZrUjwQBeP6XSEJfzqOKnttrXfa4ov4y23zjzllFHehp5ClIb-R9afS_yW4wshaH9qhFChyOcFnltm48ydfdEcYMs2mqVAqQA0Bmr-ueEQ0731yAbuku5fL-9dj93i/s1351/2023-9-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2005-30-28.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="1351" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6dMHFtLU6j5X3vMNXGfAGuLk9bflmrG9vcRN5IrHeKKCeIuvRTQm32EZVT8sseZpZrUjwQBeP6XSEJfzqOKnttrXfa4ov4y23zjzllFHehp5ClIb-R9afS_yW4wshaH9qhFChyOcFnltm48ydfdEcYMs2mqVAqQA0Bmr-ueEQ0731yAbuku5fL-9dj93i/s320/2023-9-21%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2005-30-28.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="clear: both;"><br /></p><p style="clear: both;"><br /></p><h3 style="clear: both; text-align: left;">附註</h3><p style="clear: both;"></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>【History】裡面的日期為Schwab的扣帳日</li><li>【Move Money】/【Recent Transfer Activity】裡面的日期為預計入帳日</li></ol><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdjpBgnptf9wabSbNJlSbrEMLob0Y1VPjmXP5PoT03Ob7Y1GnNy0-MCVSfzZG98seilcMFATUpUSqp6709V__BnvCpWqTg-_Jt07sa-W2BJyCd3nZ2jjGIwymbF4F58-Eg45OTLtFudgu4lGl0Pzbo_H3GtSka0sB32P8F-gFyVVhetQyVd8688qBWFRSz/s1583/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-35-38.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1583" height="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdjpBgnptf9wabSbNJlSbrEMLob0Y1VPjmXP5PoT03Ob7Y1GnNy0-MCVSfzZG98seilcMFATUpUSqp6709V__BnvCpWqTg-_Jt07sa-W2BJyCd3nZ2jjGIwymbF4F58-Eg45OTLtFudgu4lGl0Pzbo_H3GtSka0sB32P8F-gFyVVhetQyVd8688qBWFRSz/s320/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-35-38.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2uU_FPFxxictfJ0udg2UPO5SfJ5mzlo6_RQCn8nPjrRsRc1AIPeWctwwjL4If7N213QYhwrcApk10JOXKeWG60SuCGf0lnitfL_5POwIt3uDnOqkl06x9iLomyZsidIuZFAgRHrQBPxZTSXF5-BMspZQWEfsvOACr2xw9GsUyrH-d1H0XvDM2mW59x96/s1563/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-55.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="753" data-original-width="1563" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB2uU_FPFxxictfJ0udg2UPO5SfJ5mzlo6_RQCn8nPjrRsRc1AIPeWctwwjL4If7N213QYhwrcApk10JOXKeWG60SuCGf0lnitfL_5POwIt3uDnOqkl06x9iLomyZsidIuZFAgRHrQBPxZTSXF5-BMspZQWEfsvOACr2xw9GsUyrH-d1H0XvDM2mW59x96/s320/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-36-55.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1hdAzeoLBJnZXXODtvvw8la8jJrMhlpPL6HoYTPqhkd8dBdHrL03Vi2BParLgJOU9MLajSn_OD7YB_0ZDXb6Tkpslza76aodIBE1xOIngs_YAp9K7osXaPYsIXzTuRSR7jpkX05R4oRKuUuEkMCbqgB5g57Lxl2tK4N97zi-Qv0GP5xMKvQUfAshG4gZp/s1478/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-38-48.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="1478" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1hdAzeoLBJnZXXODtvvw8la8jJrMhlpPL6HoYTPqhkd8dBdHrL03Vi2BParLgJOU9MLajSn_OD7YB_0ZDXb6Tkpslza76aodIBE1xOIngs_YAp9K7osXaPYsIXzTuRSR7jpkX05R4oRKuUuEkMCbqgB5g57Lxl2tK4N97zi-Qv0GP5xMKvQUfAshG4gZp/s320/2023-9-19%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2010-38-48.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/09/achib.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">ACH匯款到IB時的兩個選項與資金扣住時間</a></li></ul><p></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-69151527423478100412023-09-11T13:26:00.036+08:002023-09-21T05:52:36.006+08:00ACH匯款到IB時的兩個選項與資金扣住時間<p style="text-align: left;">ACH匯款到IB有兩種方式:</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b><span style="color: #990000;">由IB連結到外部券商的支票帳號/在IB設定並由IB發動ACH匯入<br /></span></b>(例如Schwab的紐約梅隆銀行支票帳號,不過現在台灣已無法申請了)<br /></li><li><b><span style="color: #38761d;">由外部券商連結到IB的支票號碼/在外部券商設定並由外部券商發動ACH匯出</span></b><br /><br /></li></ol><p style="text-align: left;">第一種匯入到IB後,匯入的錢容易會有4個交易日資金扣住(Cash on Hold),我自己實際試過,而且已經是第二次了,但還是一樣有4個交易日的資金扣住期間,且這四個交易日可能還會跨過周末兩天,所以資金扣住的總天數容易長達5~6天,重點是在資金扣住期間</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>該筆資金在IB是不會產生利息的</li><li>該筆資金也不能沖掉IB的融資餘額(如下圖所示)</li></ol><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">所以在高利率的時代,應以第二種ACH的方式匯入IB比較合宜,又快(隔天到帳)又可賺取IB的利息或即時沖掉IB的融資餘額</p><div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">(萬一第二種方式無法成功連結ACH,可改用此篇【<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/07/ACATSIBSchwab.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Schwab與IB之間的免費部位現金移轉</a>】所介紹的SGOV打包移轉方式,仍可賺取移轉時的利息)</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9DcE0l7YAsydZntaZWQYDlDnk7aeJCDktJzTPBf4QekqanoZ-XGS2KGgK81noTqU5kbcvILs5kusbEOL3qVAbbLheYfYCH8mM7x9tdFgIjrEHJFtuMvxpzm7JsVZoNVuc_DvKtjCMTJg97w6aBjQRGrOFw_96Xtu-Fj2WCrUJJ_H0Z2QcQevxz-se8qXs/s1397/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-57-16.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="1397" height="123" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9DcE0l7YAsydZntaZWQYDlDnk7aeJCDktJzTPBf4QekqanoZ-XGS2KGgK81noTqU5kbcvILs5kusbEOL3qVAbbLheYfYCH8mM7x9tdFgIjrEHJFtuMvxpzm7JsVZoNVuc_DvKtjCMTJg97w6aBjQRGrOFw_96Xtu-Fj2WCrUJJ_H0Z2QcQevxz-se8qXs/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-57-16.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhBH9B8yVRLLqYeMUuGhkDX-60wqSD3aAqcg-iTeIk0axKvZif5pSygtCwNQWt4cDpFU9x5HlOFOSlewSTLdm0-EngPjMpBnmhXLZUGMqAwTp26jY5z7EHlbfSE9lEYpIqXtJvdv4UckN3sdjmM-EjCyEgPAs9bipabfW1dqpjie9w5gafCCrblEYRV9GW/s1111/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-59-24.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="1111" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhBH9B8yVRLLqYeMUuGhkDX-60wqSD3aAqcg-iTeIk0axKvZif5pSygtCwNQWt4cDpFU9x5HlOFOSlewSTLdm0-EngPjMpBnmhXLZUGMqAwTp26jY5z7EHlbfSE9lEYpIqXtJvdv4UckN3sdjmM-EjCyEgPAs9bipabfW1dqpjie9w5gafCCrblEYRV9GW/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-59-24.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiTcOnl8aFnE3jMBJHhvf2FSWN9jGJFDOGwRxR3uQHwzh_-jaq2jdveDd_E0cmqVIAnzJ8QA6IUnl_2IN613O-4otmWHlOBz-oKU9eBQQKfU1DEvuO7fWQVYh8Xx31d7Ey63yPd93pFMu6GkrM53hs91PI_1A3loo7KKSY5dKcHX8U4EiHZe1zwpvj5Ud/s1322/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-10-29.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1322" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiTcOnl8aFnE3jMBJHhvf2FSWN9jGJFDOGwRxR3uQHwzh_-jaq2jdveDd_E0cmqVIAnzJ8QA6IUnl_2IN613O-4otmWHlOBz-oKU9eBQQKfU1DEvuO7fWQVYh8Xx31d7Ey63yPd93pFMu6GkrM53hs91PI_1A3loo7KKSY5dKcHX8U4EiHZe1zwpvj5Ud/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-10-29.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><br /></span><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">第二種方式的IB支票號碼與設定如下圖所示</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhY5tQnZXb-RQTajOhIhABmO7fQmKeyIbhMbNbGzQ1q5AJnZdK80d3Htdnb_vaATuyavpguJNEipr33BXuOHeh6nkppsMHO193KWTZNpREgXt2vSOctjA1Gf2tGYTkDXnFtIGf8w7opWMszbOO_5Er5DdZYzND5hKgU3pCZVmH_2H61oy3ocpdcMoimmKp/s1477/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-56-54.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="1477" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhY5tQnZXb-RQTajOhIhABmO7fQmKeyIbhMbNbGzQ1q5AJnZdK80d3Htdnb_vaATuyavpguJNEipr33BXuOHeh6nkppsMHO193KWTZNpREgXt2vSOctjA1Gf2tGYTkDXnFtIGf8w7opWMszbOO_5Er5DdZYzND5hKgU3pCZVmH_2H61oy3ocpdcMoimmKp/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-56-54.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi0IeIgbxI2Xs4SXh71TG1xMAP1iANqyGdBtR2OZ7s-YZWOEqfisAjJwdogy-UK43DkSmZP9dhgvgD7VL8ovsT5kDKcyUO6kU8eE8MTzWzt1mlPZdpSO-_oBzI4o9QbOag1SJwQ1HcQ3YPd57rTwHR5tWIj1O5SLi_hz3WZAnVBvt_4NHG4F026ExL1wu5/s1128/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-59-12.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="178" data-original-width="1128" height="50" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi0IeIgbxI2Xs4SXh71TG1xMAP1iANqyGdBtR2OZ7s-YZWOEqfisAjJwdogy-UK43DkSmZP9dhgvgD7VL8ovsT5kDKcyUO6kU8eE8MTzWzt1mlPZdpSO-_oBzI4o9QbOag1SJwQ1HcQ3YPd57rTwHR5tWIj1O5SLi_hz3WZAnVBvt_4NHG4F026ExL1wu5/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-59-12.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PXD2Pj5lxg5du3pqvU73sw42J26RED9GhutMNBA5ohnegaapxnFc25YYfbi59Mntd3S0N-pXg6iqHaCbrvr91GsMhGYtr-vbGOP-MQcXepDSbkpIHp68PWEEVbMS5c0ADGip1F2QvWMhtLUKEGa7yZq2wL9tqq_Vnin4SgZfpt7qbxBAfaT391qi6kI3/s1054/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-49-17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="1054" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PXD2Pj5lxg5du3pqvU73sw42J26RED9GhutMNBA5ohnegaapxnFc25YYfbi59Mntd3S0N-pXg6iqHaCbrvr91GsMhGYtr-vbGOP-MQcXepDSbkpIHp68PWEEVbMS5c0ADGip1F2QvWMhtLUKEGa7yZq2wL9tqq_Vnin4SgZfpt7qbxBAfaT391qi6kI3/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-49-17.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNS45HQnor5pbeqEC6cORIwweB9LJxZk7fXXXd-i9kRQCf0cf1sX7Xaba0ifWCS7pZzC75LEFdWXQzLgemWHHiplWc2HRB4t8z3kaP81fc7g7aBaHEqW4cjx5oHllppR2jt22WK2eAqv41vFRTptWSLht0A_bPbItfsakuWZfiqF0OaReMH0Rc3p4jAWHk/s1025/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-38-33.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1025" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNS45HQnor5pbeqEC6cORIwweB9LJxZk7fXXXd-i9kRQCf0cf1sX7Xaba0ifWCS7pZzC75LEFdWXQzLgemWHHiplWc2HRB4t8z3kaP81fc7g7aBaHEqW4cjx5oHllppR2jt22WK2eAqv41vFRTptWSLht0A_bPbItfsakuWZfiqF0OaReMH0Rc3p4jAWHk/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-38-33.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaR7CzifUi2RCQnvr2aUbWcGP-VXBX2jntOTF2RBgmxMz2bGfEVOU6ClY3WJYBkee6tXO-iPYX-L0bMKuO15STa6uT2KYPhGR68jcmee9ptt3wQMVxYQ_PhJwGYsatjT6l4bi2hgqNavkTwyqqKVTxAkN2icfSPA3YEWMAV0SRXJcf3h_TeSwH5VznoPas/s1256/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-46-07.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="1256" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaR7CzifUi2RCQnvr2aUbWcGP-VXBX2jntOTF2RBgmxMz2bGfEVOU6ClY3WJYBkee6tXO-iPYX-L0bMKuO15STa6uT2KYPhGR68jcmee9ptt3wQMVxYQ_PhJwGYsatjT6l4bi2hgqNavkTwyqqKVTxAkN2icfSPA3YEWMAV0SRXJcf3h_TeSwH5VznoPas/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2001-46-07.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">由外部券商設定ACH時,IB的ACH帳號類型請選支票,而在驗證階段,需輸入取款金額時,而在IB端只查詢到兩筆小額存款,但未查到一筆取款時(那筆取款有時會比較慢出現),把那兩筆小額存款加起來就是取款金額了</p><p style="text-align: left;">另一點要注意的是,在Schwab設定IB ACH時,在驗證階段一定要執行到完成畫面,如果在最後一個按鈕選擇取消跳出離開,可能會再也無法連接該IB的這個ACH帳號了(Schwab的系統Bug),這點要特別注意</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/09/schwabsgovach.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Schwab的國庫券與SGOV變現後無縫接軌ACH匯出</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/09/ibach.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">由IB拒絕外部的ACH連結</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/07/ACATSIBSchwab.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Schwab與IB之間的免費部位現金移轉</a></li></ul><div><br /></div><p></p></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-83741397068672630622023-09-11T11:41:00.005+08:002023-09-11T13:58:15.997+08:00由IB拒絕外部的ACH連結<p style="text-align: left;">由其他券商(例如Schwab)透過ACH連接IB時,手機會收到一封IB發出來的簡訊(如下圖所示),告知可藉由IBKR Mobile手機APP來拒絕該ACH連結(雖然現在沒有要拒絕,但哪天如果帳號被駭,可由此方法直接拒絕可疑的ACH連結),不過實際打開手機的IBKR Mobile APP,卻沒找到可以拒絕ACH連結的地方,於是詢問IB人員</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikOEsUKh9d4OsV1xnZua_7TEA4zuCA6P3F3JSiYpD0KVO8XRcQi81iX2cHKBFVukDdR4_axRvMUADGOYJBzlsXDLjQyoNxxhEMYlRrlmO-KLCJXzNmip7evpFIPNwhTRYZ4ZUyG-5EwNkv9gS3fa7VAOm9DL3tBCgopbi0pTpnKLw-DaAtu8asdYMwrg5j/s568/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-21-27.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="327" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikOEsUKh9d4OsV1xnZua_7TEA4zuCA6P3F3JSiYpD0KVO8XRcQi81iX2cHKBFVukDdR4_axRvMUADGOYJBzlsXDLjQyoNxxhEMYlRrlmO-KLCJXzNmip7evpFIPNwhTRYZ4ZUyG-5EwNkv9gS3fa7VAOm9DL3tBCgopbi0pTpnKLw-DaAtu8asdYMwrg5j/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-21-27.png" width="184" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;">得到的答覆如下</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpn-sSzcxPTTWUIfPwy8gGTqUY1Zyk1oybOwjVtHGlXri-c73Oba90TERzYekxPRO8L27uHClTCZYDq3Zdamtz1U3rhuJHcpgg3WyeCCsBFjgKXN9Avawqf0Fe0iH1nQdUQY6M6HTOxnC_zM3AaFSfivPyCYtKrsorAIbMcg0LL5bImzFFxTflEI57Hryb/s1093/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-24-17.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="1093" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpn-sSzcxPTTWUIfPwy8gGTqUY1Zyk1oybOwjVtHGlXri-c73Oba90TERzYekxPRO8L27uHClTCZYDq3Zdamtz1U3rhuJHcpgg3WyeCCsBFjgKXN9Avawqf0Fe0iH1nQdUQY6M6HTOxnC_zM3AaFSfivPyCYtKrsorAIbMcg0LL5bImzFFxTflEI57Hryb/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-24-17.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">後來自己再查看一下IBKR Mobile的登入畫面,還是沒看到【Banking > Direct Debits】的地方,不過IB的另一個2FA的App(Handy Key)有類似回覆中的這個地方,猜想應該可能是這個地方,如下所示,不過可拒絕的時限已過,看不到拒絕選項,下次有ACH連結時,再點開來看看</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK4Ta8oOkHUkFHQGMATF2QnHlE6ehfwZtEAVM8oJ9P1DsSP4AlnOXUCqWWRheLR1vxHk6yxuSMlmgQEy2FOa2TETzYlCO50wR2cigC6bzV8nYHpm5f8sc-6jzXVy3MiozUcKtq1JFjgyJEJoTLXvsmG3b2XlUb9J32zXw0p4HyhHmdJbFqRJjkZeFL-8DB/s1464/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-32-26.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="1464" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK4Ta8oOkHUkFHQGMATF2QnHlE6ehfwZtEAVM8oJ9P1DsSP4AlnOXUCqWWRheLR1vxHk6yxuSMlmgQEy2FOa2TETzYlCO50wR2cigC6bzV8nYHpm5f8sc-6jzXVy3MiozUcKtq1JFjgyJEJoTLXvsmG3b2XlUb9J32zXw0p4HyhHmdJbFqRJjkZeFL-8DB/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-32-26.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizvEjpMvdJws44Bhl3aUA8v9dzfq0mgC5LRKInZG97K-Ejkk86DNeoIU2lE2Q93u5tFYpmxIe5Xa8_w2RN-71N2zaIUt_zIsmBfBnsFJfDWq9v58EZVHUkt-Glt3xclruTSfyMy4w3_cuFZ2WtuOuobHybw_PCIHtYXpu57mMz1yN2S5wqRxg5ikrWmsIj/s711/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-33-50.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="400" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizvEjpMvdJws44Bhl3aUA8v9dzfq0mgC5LRKInZG97K-Ejkk86DNeoIU2lE2Q93u5tFYpmxIe5Xa8_w2RN-71N2zaIUt_zIsmBfBnsFJfDWq9v58EZVHUkt-Glt3xclruTSfyMy4w3_cuFZ2WtuOuobHybw_PCIHtYXpu57mMz1yN2S5wqRxg5ikrWmsIj/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-33-50.png" width="180" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="406" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQhDgtB0kiWZ7MUJ--okoNsWrvrBWOZacQ-BqLiiGy_nzkWPXnZKO6Ta3ZTl1kSksMBW4V9wjGrGKopyEyYGxCCOK_1xQu-WBQXrJ5AL1QHXdEOJH5Zb0uLhEke3u2KWEkxSfkUdhH976UnNpuiJ0bKpSZiKeh5Y7Eob_aLQD2VtqrpfiTgdvkM_NUrpIb/s320/2023-9-11%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%88%2011-34-59.png" width="179" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3984683634188321439.post-8207442108563096922023-08-09T15:26:00.019+08:002023-08-11T12:40:29.823+08:00如何解讀債券投資組合的利率風險圖<p style="text-align: left;">在此篇『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/04/blog-post_29.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">如何忽略帳戶的債券利率風險而只算債券的理論本金+殖利率收益?</a>』文中有提到,債券的利率風險是可以忽略的,但是如果事前能先有個底總是能讓人比較放心,而這個底可透過『<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2022/05/blog-post.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">債券庫存管理</a>』裡面的利率風險圖來揭曉</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO3sjRakt7XAgeeEdK2WDZQtOC2Z5fkWkykx-DXMMdZZrxiAjGKZJ0dIdkWZmhi-2e87oJVw4ErQwLFRYQmb2PpYGD6EqcJ-3zHgFGVATuHcNHFfX-cD0M_4oOejj-B8w-hIZB38tHCfs7HQoUoHlvrcFJAm-Mt_t20M4y05R9NP-B0quqnsttTm4_HHUc/s1468/2023-8-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-39-21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1468" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO3sjRakt7XAgeeEdK2WDZQtOC2Z5fkWkykx-DXMMdZZrxiAjGKZJ0dIdkWZmhi-2e87oJVw4ErQwLFRYQmb2PpYGD6EqcJ-3zHgFGVATuHcNHFfX-cD0M_4oOejj-B8w-hIZB38tHCfs7HQoUoHlvrcFJAm-Mt_t20M4y05R9NP-B0quqnsttTm4_HHUc/s320/2023-8-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2012-39-21.png" width="320" /></a></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><p style="text-align: left;">以上圖為例,此圖中的利率風險圖是透過【目前修正後存續期】與【目前凸率】的理論公式所繪製而成,【成交到期殖利率】為本債券投資組合買進時的整體殖利率(4.99%),也就是成本的殖利率,而【目前到期殖利率】為本投資組合以目前市場行情換算出來的殖利率(5.37%),目前殖利率上升0.38%(= 5.37% - 4.99%),而對應的利率虧損為$7,266.34,利率損益會隨著【市場到期殖利率】的變化而改變,而【市場到期殖利率】指的就是【目前到期殖利率】,所以【目前到期殖利率】在圖中曲線所對應的值即為利率損益,而因為【目前凸率】大於零,所以該曲線的中間部分會略微向左下方凸,也就形成對投資者有利的利率損益曲線,當利率升降幅度相同時,獲利會大於虧損:</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>當殖利率分別上升與下降1%時:虧損與獲利都差不多是$20,000(<b><span style="color: #f1c232;">10%</span></b> = 20,000 / 185,122.56)</li><li>當殖利率分別上升與下降2%時:虧損約為-$35,000(<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>-19%</b></span> = -35,000 / 185,122.56),而獲利約為$45,000(<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>24%</b></span> = 45,000 / 185,122.56)</li><li>當殖利率分別上升與下降3%時:虧損約為-$45,000(<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">-24%</span></b> = -45,000 / 185,122.56),而獲利約為$70,000(<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>38%</b></span> = 70,000 / 185,122.56)</li><li>當殖利率分別上升與下降4%時:虧損約為-$55,000(<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">-30%</span></b> = -55,000 / 185,122.56),而獲利約為$100,000(<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>54%</b></span> = 100,000 / 185,122.56)</li><li>當殖利率分別上升與下降5%時:虧損約為-$65,000(<span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>-35%</b></span> = -65,000 / 185,122.56),而獲利約為$130,000(<span style="color: #6aa84f;"><b>70%</b></span> = 130,000 / 185,122.56)</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">殖利率升到10%時的虧損只有<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">35%</span></b>,而殖利率降到0%時的獲利卻高達<b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">70%</span></b>,然而殖利率會飆升到10%的機率幾乎是微乎其微,且獲利是虧損的一倍,所以如果可以接受暫時最大虧損35%,那這顯然是很好的風險報酬比,而這種有利的風險報酬比是由<b><span style="color: #38761d;">正的</span></b>【凸率;Convexity】所貢獻出來的,而能產生正凸率的債券包含</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><span style="color: #38761d;">不可贖回債券</span></b></li><li><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Make-Whole Call債券</span></b></li></ul>而會產生負凸率的債券包含(負凸率會形成對投資者不利的利率損益曲線,當利率升降幅度相同時,虧損會大於獲利)<p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>傳統可贖回債券</li><li>絕大部分的MBS</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #38761d;"><b>雖然傳統可贖回的債券會產生負凸率,但如果可贖回日期只在到期前幾個月且該債券還有好幾年才到期(幾乎絕大部分的公司債都是此類的贖回模式),那可贖回期間只會占末端的極小部分,所以此類的傳統可贖回債券還是可接受的,可忽略此種債券的負凸率部分</b></span></p><p style="text-align: left;">真正的傳統可贖回模式大多仍存活於政府機構債(Agency Bond),可贖回日期在很早就開始了,這點要特別留意,如要購買此類債券,最好選不配息的或票面利率極低的債券</p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #990000;"><b>會讓凸率變大的條件與讓Duration(風險)變大的條件相同,所以雖然風險變大了,但投資者的風險報酬比卻變更有利了</b></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>到期時間越長:如果是長期閒置資金,可由此條件切入</li><li>票面利率越低:<a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/04/blog-post_19.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">如果持有後殖利率創新高時想賣掉(賣掉再由該波的高點買回),則不適合由此條件切入</a></li><li>到期殖利率越低:如果以固定收益為主要考量,則不適合由此條件切入</li></ol><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">下圖為本債券投資組合的分布圖,主要評級為A,餘年以15年以上的公司債為主,而CME的持債比例11%略為過高,應找機會售出該債券總面額的一半,以降低該債券的曝險比例</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxIiknmCVHa7IGl-suTsHkufWFHCob70flIHq4sOD49zxBcEVJ0z5xJpwH188KRvgo-uV8CUvyfvy53WyLe7Ju7AsfRGFI_2EAikYesh5UsyUv__2r0HEzBDcwnmbEXRe7Evus1OzlFcwoXifW2IwQGYpSsHwk6NKHgN1aC7pzFVmQ_3ZHEV3iA28_PXgj/s1466/2023-8-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-43-39.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="1466" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxIiknmCVHa7IGl-suTsHkufWFHCob70flIHq4sOD49zxBcEVJ0z5xJpwH188KRvgo-uV8CUvyfvy53WyLe7Ju7AsfRGFI_2EAikYesh5UsyUv__2r0HEzBDcwnmbEXRe7Evus1OzlFcwoXifW2IwQGYpSsHwk6NKHgN1aC7pzFVmQ_3ZHEV3iA28_PXgj/s320/2023-8-9%20%E4%B8%8B%E5%8D%88%2002-43-39.png" width="320" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">延伸閱讀</h3><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/advice-products-and-services/investment-solutions/fixed-income/bond-basics/duration-and-convexity" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Duration & Convexity: The Price/Yield Relationship</a></li><li><a href="https://w-boat.blogspot.com/2023/04/finra.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">最常見的債券贖回模式(FINRA與公開說明書查閱)</a></li><li><a href="https://greenhornfinancefootnote.blogspot.com/2008/05/2bond-convexity.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">債券的彎曲度</a></li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952649844124004195noreply@blogger.com0